The School of College Oddsodds.college
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UCF Knights v Florida Gulf Coast Eagles

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 23:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UCF Knights (Local)

Prediction 64.82%1.54fair odd
EV -4.07%
Edge -2.75%
Kelly -8.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.61%64.81%64.71%65.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.441.441.4870.42%69.20%69.20%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (Visit)

Prediction 35.18%2.84fair odd
EV -2.90%
Edge -1.05%
Kelly -1.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.13%35.19%35.29%36.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.572.662.672.7638.91%37.55%37.38%36.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UCF Knights (Local): 64.82%; Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (Visit): 35.18%. For Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.84. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.76, with an expected value of -2.90%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.07%E -2.75%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.53%E -3.28%K -5.33%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-04 22:59
DraftKings🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -4.72%E -3.21%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -6.77%E -2.55%K -4.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-04 23:00
1xBet🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 63.61%EV -4.72%E -3.21%K -10.04%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 36.39%EV -9.58%E -3.73%K -6.10%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-04 22:52
theScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.01%E -4.15%K -13.36%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -5.01%E -1.85%K -2.95%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-04 23:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -6.01%E -4.15%K -13.36%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -6.77%E -2.55%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-04 22:59
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -6.66%E -4.63%K -15.14%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -8.53%E -3.28%K -5.33%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-04 23:00
FanDuel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.87%EV -7.31%E -5.11%K -17.00%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 34.13%EV -2.90%E -1.05%K -1.65%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-04 23:00
BetRivers🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -7.96%E -5.60%K -18.95%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -5.01%E -1.85%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-04 23:00
Bally Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -7.96%E -5.60%K -18.95%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -5.01%E -1.85%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-04 23:00
betPARX🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -7.96%E -5.60%K -18.95%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -5.01%E -1.85%K -2.95%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-04 23:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.