Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos v UC San Diego Tritons

Kickoff: 2026-04-10 23:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

83%

17%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Local)

Prediction 82.91%1.21fair odd

EV -3.00%

Edge -2.56%

Kelly -17.63%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

80.40%82.91%82.91%85.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.111.141.141.1790.09%87.72%87.72%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UC San Diego Tritons (Visit)

Prediction 17.09%5.85fair odd

EV +11.10%

Edge +1.71%

Kelly +2.02%

Growth +0.224%

assuming max odds 6.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

14.59%17.09%17.09%19.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.805.655.656.5020.83%17.70%17.70%15.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Local): 82.91%; UC San Diego Tritons (Visit): 17.09%. For UC San Diego Tritons (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.85. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 85.41%EV -7.97%E -7.18%K -72.47%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.59%EV +11.10%E +1.71%K +2.02%G +0.224%	5.5%	2026-04-10 14:54
BetMGM🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -3.00%E -2.56%K -17.63%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -17.96%E -3.74%K -4.73%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-04-10 12:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.00I 100.00%NM 86.88%	6.62I 15.11%NM 13.12%	15.1%	2026-04-10 15:24