Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos v UC San Diego Tritons

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

72%

28%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Local)

Prediction 71.69%1.39fair odd

EV -4.66%

Edge -3.50%

Kelly -14.11%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

70.99%71.75%71.69%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.311.321.321.3376.34%75.90%75.76%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UC San Diego Tritons (Visit)

Prediction 28.31%3.53fair odd

EV +0.232%

Edge +0.065%

Kelly +0.091%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.01%28.25%28.31%29.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.233.353.313.5430.96%29.86%30.21%28.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Local): 71.69%; UC San Diego Tritons (Visit): 28.31%. For UC San Diego Tritons (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.53. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.54, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.232%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 72.99%EV -6.09%E -4.65%K -19.65%G +0.000%	3.54I 28.25%NM 27.01%EV +0.232%E +0.065%K +0.091%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-05-23 17:19
Caesars🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.66%E -3.50%K -14.11%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -3.73%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-05-23 14:39
BetMGM🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -6.09%E -4.65%K -19.65%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -3.73%E -1.10%K -1.56%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-05-23 15:10
LowVig.ag🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 71.49%EV -5.37%E -4.07%K -16.80%G +0.000%	3.31I 30.21%NM 28.51%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-23 13:19
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 71.49%EV -5.37%E -4.07%K -16.80%G +0.000%	3.31I 30.21%NM 28.51%EV -6.28%E -1.90%K -2.72%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-23 13:19
DraftKings🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.37%E -4.07%K -16.80%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -6.56%E -1.99%K -2.85%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-23 13:09
Bovada🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.09%E -4.65%K -19.65%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -6.56%E -1.99%K -2.85%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-05-23 13:28
BetUS🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 70.99%EV -5.37%E -4.07%K -16.80%G +0.000%	3.23I 30.96%NM 29.01%EV -8.55%E -2.65%K -3.83%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-23 13:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.