Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos v UC San Diego Tritons

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Local)

Prediction 74.32%1.35fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -2.02%
Kelly -8.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.49%74.41%74.70%76.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.231.261.261.3181.30%79.19%79.37%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UC San Diego Tritons (Visit)

Prediction 25.68%3.89fair odd
EV +2.73%
Edge +0.681%
Kelly +0.909%
Growth +0.025%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.52%25.59%25.30%27.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.653.694.0029.41%27.40%27.10%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Local): 74.32%; UC San Diego Tritons (Visit): 25.68%. For UC San Diego Tritons (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.89. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.73%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -8.59%E -6.98%K -37.34%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV +2.73%E +0.681%K +0.909%G +0.025%6.3%2026-04-11 11:24
theScore Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -7.84%E -6.33%K -32.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -2.41%E -0.634%K -0.861%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 13:05
BetMGM🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.62%E -4.42%K -20.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -3.69%E -0.985%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-11 04:14
BetRivers🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -8.59%E -6.98%K -37.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -3.69%E -0.985%K -1.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 15:35
betPARX🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -8.59%E -6.98%K -37.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -3.69%E -0.985%K -1.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 15:35
Bally Bet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -8.59%E -6.98%K -37.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -3.69%E -0.985%K -1.34%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-11 15:35
MyBookie.ag🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -7.10%E -5.68%K -28.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -4.98%E -1.35%K -1.84%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-11 14:15
1xBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.65%EV -7.10%E -5.68%K -28.41%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.35%EV -5.49%E -1.49%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 19:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.13%EV -4.13%E -3.20%K -14.24%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 26.88%EV -9.86%E -2.81%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 13:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.13%EV -4.13%E -3.20%K -14.24%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 26.88%EV -9.86%E -2.81%K -3.93%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-11 13:40
Caesars🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -2.64%E -2.02%K -8.52%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -10.12%E -2.89%K -4.05%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-11 13:29
DraftKings🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -4.13%E -3.20%K -14.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -10.12%E -2.89%K -4.05%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-11 13:00
Bovada🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -4.87%E -3.81%K -17.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -10.12%E -2.89%K -4.05%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-11 13:10
BetUS🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -4.13%E -3.20%K -14.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -12.68%E -3.73%K -5.28%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-11 16:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.26I 79.37%NM 75.53%3.89I 25.71%NM 24.47%5.1%2026-04-11 19:59