Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos v Portland Pilots

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 23:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

76%

24%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Local)

Prediction 76.12%1.31fair odd

EV -4.86%

Edge -3.88%

Kelly -19.42%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

73.68%76.12%75.83%78.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.191.231.241.2584.03%81.37%80.65%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Portland Pilots (Visit)

Prediction 23.88%4.19fair odd

EV +5.09%

Edge +1.16%

Kelly +1.50%

Growth +0.076%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.29%23.88%24.17%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.503.883.734.4028.57%25.78%26.85%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Local): 76.12%; Portland Pilots (Visit): 23.88%. For Portland Pilots (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.19. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.09%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -8.66%E -7.22%K -43.31%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV +5.09%E +1.16%K +1.50%G +0.076%	6.1%	2026-02-21 14:10
BetMGM🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -8.66%E -7.22%K -43.31%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV +5.09%E +1.16%K +1.50%G +0.076%	6.1%	2026-02-21 18:25
Bovada🎯	1.19I 84.03%NM 78.71%EV -9.42%E -7.92%K -49.60%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.29%EV +5.09%E +1.16%K +1.50%G +0.076%	6.8%	2026-02-21 18:34
theScore Bet🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -7.14%E -5.85%K -32.45%G +0.000%	3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -6.85%E -1.76%K -2.36%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-02-21 22:15
FanDuel🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -4.86%E -3.88%K -19.42%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -8.04%E -2.09%K -2.82%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-02-21 15:15
BetRivers🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -4.86%E -3.88%K -19.42%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -14.01%E -3.89%K -5.39%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-02-21 15:10
betPARX🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -4.86%E -3.88%K -19.42%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -14.01%E -3.89%K -5.39%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-02-21 15:10
Bally Bet🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -4.86%E -3.88%K -19.42%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -14.01%E -3.89%K -5.39%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-02-21 15:10
1xBet🎯	1.23I 81.30%NM 74.21%EV -6.38%E -5.19%K -27.73%G +0.000%	3.54I 28.25%NM 25.79%EV -15.45%E -4.36%K -6.08%G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-02-21 18:35
Betway🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -4.86%E -3.88%K -19.42%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -16.40%E -4.69%K -6.56%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-02-21 15:15

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.