Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos v Portland Pilots

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 20:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Local)

Prediction 75.26%1.33fair odd
EV -5.92%
Edge -4.74%
Kelly -23.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.00%75.21%75.00%76.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.241.251.2581.97%80.45%80.00%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Portland Pilots (Visit)

Prediction 24.74%4.04fair odd
EV -1.05%
Edge -0.264%
Kelly -0.352%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.52%24.79%25.00%27.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.383.733.754.0029.59%26.82%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Local): 75.26%; Portland Pilots (Visit): 24.74%. For Portland Pilots (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.04. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.00, with an expected value of -1.05%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.92%E -4.74%K -23.68%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.00%E -1.58%K -2.14%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-22 18:19
BetMGM🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.92%E -4.74%K -23.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -7.24%E -1.93%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-22 14:59
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.92%E -4.74%K -23.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -7.24%E -1.93%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-22 14:14
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.92%E -4.74%K -23.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -7.24%E -1.93%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-22 15:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.92%E -4.74%K -23.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -7.24%E -1.93%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-22 15:05
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -5.92%E -4.74%K -23.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -13.42%E -3.84%K -5.37%G +0.000%8.6%2026-02-22 11:14
1xBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.00%EV -5.92%E -4.74%K -23.68%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.00%EV -16.39%E -4.85%K -6.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-02-22 15:04
Bovada🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -6.67%E -5.38%K -27.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -6.00%E -1.58%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-22 18:23
BetRivers🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.90%EV -6.67%E -5.38%K -27.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV -8.48%E -2.29%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-22 15:09
Bally Bet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.90%EV -6.67%E -5.38%K -27.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV -8.48%E -2.29%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-22 15:10
betPARX🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 74.90%EV -6.67%E -5.38%K -27.80%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.10%EV -8.48%E -2.29%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-22 15:10
FanDuel🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 76.48%EV -7.43%E -6.04%K -32.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.52%EV -1.05%E -0.264%K -0.352%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-22 15:09
theScore Bet🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.17%EV -8.18%E -6.70%K -37.17%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -3.53%E -0.905%K -1.22%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-22 15:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.