Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos v Cal Poly Mustangs

Kickoff: 2026-05-22 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

61%

39%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Local)

Prediction 61.44%1.63fair odd

EV -2.31%

Edge -1.45%

Kelly -3.91%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

60.15%61.30%61.56%62.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.501.531.531.5966.67%65.17%65.36%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cal Poly Mustangs (Visit)

Prediction 38.56%2.59fair odd

EV -5.53%

Edge -2.26%

Kelly -3.82%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.97%38.70%38.44%39.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.402.442.452.4541.67%41.04%40.82%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Local): 61.44%; Cal Poly Mustangs (Visit): 38.56%. For UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.63. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.59, with an expected value of -2.31%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Caesars🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -2.31%E -1.45%K -3.91%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -7.46%E -3.11%K -5.33%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-05-22 16:29
1xBet🎯	1.58I 63.29%NM 60.40%EV -2.92%E -1.85%K -5.04%G +0.000%	2.41I 41.49%NM 39.60%EV -7.07%E -2.94%K -5.02%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-05-22 14:10
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -5.38%E -3.49%K -9.96%G +0.000%	2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -6.30%E -2.59%K -4.41%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-22 14:10
LowVig.ag🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -5.38%E -3.49%K -9.96%G +0.000%	2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -6.30%E -2.59%K -4.41%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-22 14:10
BetUS🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -5.38%E -3.49%K -9.96%G +0.000%	2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -6.30%E -2.59%K -4.41%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-22 14:10
DraftKings🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.99%E -3.92%K -11.31%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.53%E -2.26%K -3.82%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-22 14:10
Bovada🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.99%E -3.92%K -11.31%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.53%E -2.26%K -3.82%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-22 14:10
BetMGM🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -5.99%E -3.92%K -11.31%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV -5.53%E -2.26%K -3.82%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-22 17:10
BetRivers🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -7.84%E -5.23%K -15.68%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -5.53%E -2.26%K -3.82%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-05-22 17:10
betPARX🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -7.84%E -5.23%K -15.68%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -5.53%E -2.26%K -3.82%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-05-22 17:10
Bally Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -7.84%E -5.23%K -15.68%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -5.53%E -2.26%K -3.82%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-05-22 17:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.