Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UC Irvine Anteaters v Cal Poly Mustangs

Kickoff: 2026-05-03 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

41%

59%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UC Irvine Anteaters (Local)

Prediction 40.80%2.45fair odd

EV -4.12%

Edge -1.75%

Kelly -3.05%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

40.05%40.80%41.18%43.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.152.282.302.3546.51%43.86%43.48%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Cal Poly Mustangs (Visit)

Prediction 59.20%1.69fair odd

EV -2.32%

Edge -1.41%

Kelly -3.57%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

56.58%59.20%58.82%59.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.571.611.611.6563.69%62.27%62.11%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UC Irvine Anteaters (Local): 40.80%; Cal Poly Mustangs (Visit): 59.20%. For Cal Poly Mustangs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.69. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.65, with an expected value of -2.32%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.12%E -1.75%K -3.05%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -7.06%E -4.50%K -12.38%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-03 16:20
BetMGM🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.69%E -2.91%K -7.69%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-03 18:05
theScore Bet🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.69%E -2.91%K -7.69%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-03 18:10
Bovada🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.16%E -2.68%K -4.74%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.87%E -3.69%K -9.96%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-03 16:23
1xBet🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -12.28%E -5.71%K -10.68%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -2.32%E -1.41%K -3.57%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-05-03 18:45

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%	6.2%	2026-05-03 19:50