Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UC Davis Aggies v UC Santa Barbara Gauchos

Kickoff: 2026-03-15 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UC Davis Aggies (Local)

Prediction 22.61%4.42fair odd
EV -0.502%
Edge -0.114%
Kelly -0.148%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.43%22.70%22.58%24.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.084.104.4025.97%24.51%24.39%22.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Visit)

Prediction 77.39%1.29fair odd
EV -3.27%
Edge -2.61%
Kelly -13.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.64%77.30%77.42%78.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.221.211.2584.03%82.19%82.64%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UC Davis Aggies (Local): 22.61%; UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Visit): 77.39%. For UC Davis Aggies (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.42. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.40, with an expected value of -0.502%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -0.502%E -0.114%K -0.148%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -7.14%E -5.95%K -35.68%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-15 15:54
DraftKings🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.16%EV -3.89%E -0.916%K -1.20%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.84%EV -6.36%E -5.26%K -30.29%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-15 16:55
BetMGM🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -5.03%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.63%EV -6.36%E -5.26%K -30.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-15 15:30
theScore Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -5.03%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -7.14%E -5.95%K -35.68%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-15 15:55
1xBet🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 22.57%EV -6.16%E -1.48%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.43%EV -6.36%E -5.26%K -30.29%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-15 17:45
BetRivers🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -7.29%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -6.36%E -5.26%K -30.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 15:55
betPARX🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -7.29%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -6.36%E -5.26%K -30.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 15:55
Bally Bet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.79%EV -7.29%E -1.78%K -2.35%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 77.21%EV -6.36%E -5.26%K -30.29%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-15 15:55
Caesars🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -9.55%E -2.39%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -3.27%E -2.61%K -13.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-15 17:29
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -9.55%E -2.39%K -3.18%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.14%E -5.95%K -35.68%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-15 15:54
BetOnline.ag🎯3.98I 25.13%NM 23.75%EV -10.00%E -2.51%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.25%EV -4.04%E -3.26%K -16.83%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-15 15:39
LowVig.ag🎯3.98I 25.13%NM 23.75%EV -10.00%E -2.51%K -3.36%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.25%EV -4.04%E -3.26%K -16.83%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-15 15:40
MyBookie.ag🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.75%EV -10.68%E -2.70%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 76.25%EV -4.81%E -3.91%K -20.93%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-15 17:04
Fliff🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.15%EV -10.68%E -2.70%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 76.85%EV -7.91%E -6.65%K -41.63%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-15 19:10
BetUS🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -12.94%E -3.36%K -4.54%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%EV -4.04%E -3.26%K -16.83%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-15 16:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig4.52I 22.12%NM 20.98%1.20I 83.33%NM 79.02%5.5%2026-03-15 19:00