Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

UC Davis Aggies v California Golden Bears

Kickoff: 2026-02-26 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

33%

67%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

UC Davis Aggies (Local)

Prediction 33.40%2.99fair odd

EV +0.194%

Edge +0.065%

Kelly +0.097%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.19%33.21%33.65%34.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.662.832.803.0037.59%35.39%35.71%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

California Golden Bears (Visit)

Prediction 66.60%1.50fair odd

EV -5.43%

Edge -3.82%

Kelly -12.92%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

65.53%66.79%66.35%68.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.361.401.401.4273.53%71.64%71.43%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: UC Davis Aggies (Local): 33.40%; California Golden Bears (Visit): 66.60%. For UC Davis Aggies (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.99. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.194%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
888sport🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +0.194%E +0.065%K +0.097%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -9.42%E -6.93%K -26.17%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-02-25 17:04
888sport (SE)🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +0.194%E +0.065%K +0.097%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -9.42%E -6.93%K -26.17%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-02-25 17:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +0.194%E +0.065%K +0.097%G +0.000%	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -9.42%E -6.93%K -26.17%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-02-25 17:05
FanDuel🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.15%E -1.08%K -1.66%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.76%E -4.83%K -16.89%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-02-26 00:15
Bovada🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -3.15%E -1.08%K -1.66%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -8.09%E -5.86%K -21.29%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-02-25 18:04
theScore Bet🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.49%E -2.32%K -3.60%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.43%E -3.82%K -12.92%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-02-26 00:05
DraftKings🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -6.49%E -2.32%K -3.60%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.43%E -3.82%K -12.92%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-02-25 17:50
Betway🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.16%E -2.97%K -4.66%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.76%E -4.83%K -16.89%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-02-26 00:04
BetRivers🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -9.83%E -3.64%K -5.78%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -5.43%E -3.82%K -12.92%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-02-26 00:00
betPARX🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -9.83%E -3.64%K -5.78%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -5.43%E -3.82%K -12.92%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-02-26 00:00
Bally Bet🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -9.83%E -3.64%K -5.78%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -5.43%E -3.82%K -12.92%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-02-25 23:59
1xBet🎯	2.66I 37.59%NM 34.32%EV -11.16%E -4.20%K -6.72%G +0.000%	1.39I 71.94%NM 65.68%EV -7.42%E -5.34%K -19.03%G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-02-26 00:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.