Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Troy Trojans v South Alabama Jaguars

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 20:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

54%

46%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Troy Trojans (Local)

Prediction 53.58%1.87fair odd

EV -3.55%

Edge -1.97%

Kelly -4.44%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

51.87%53.78%53.05%56.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.671.751.761.8059.88%57.10%56.82%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

South Alabama Jaguars (Visit)

Prediction 46.42%2.15fair odd

EV +0.724%

Edge +0.334%

Kelly +0.619%

Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

43.49%46.22%46.95%48.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.942.011.962.1751.55%49.80%51.02%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Troy Trojans (Local): 53.58%; South Alabama Jaguars (Visit): 46.42%. For South Alabama Jaguars (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.15. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.17, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.724%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
LowVig.ag🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -10.52%E -6.30%K -15.69%G +0.000%	2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV +0.724%E +0.334%K +0.619%G +0.004%	6.0%	2026-05-09 16:14
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.51%EV -10.52%E -6.30%K -15.69%G +0.000%	2.17I 46.08%NM 43.49%EV +0.724%E +0.334%K +0.619%G +0.004%	6.0%	2026-05-09 16:14
BetMGM🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -10.52%E -6.30%K -15.69%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -0.204%E -0.095%K -0.178%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-09 16:14
theScore Bet🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.16%E -2.91%K -6.70%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.17%E -3.58%K -7.17%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-09 18:19
Caesars🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.16%E -2.91%K -6.70%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.17%E -3.58%K -7.17%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-09 14:04
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -6.23%E -3.56%K -8.31%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.17%E -3.58%K -7.17%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-05-09 18:44
BetRivers🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 52.69%EV -5.69%E -3.23%K -7.49%G +0.000%	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.31%EV -9.02%E -4.60%K -9.40%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-05-09 19:44
betPARX🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 52.69%EV -5.69%E -3.23%K -7.49%G +0.000%	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.31%EV -9.02%E -4.60%K -9.40%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-05-09 19:44
Bally Bet🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 52.69%EV -5.69%E -3.23%K -7.49%G +0.000%	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.31%EV -9.02%E -4.60%K -9.40%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-05-09 19:44
DraftKings🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.55%E -1.97%K -4.44%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.49%E -4.87%K -9.99%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-09 04:54
Bovada🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.55%E -1.97%K -4.44%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.49%E -4.87%K -9.99%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-09 05:35
BetUS🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -3.55%E -1.97%K -4.44%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -9.49%E -4.87%K -9.99%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-09 14:09
Betway🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -6.76%E -3.89%K -9.14%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -9.49%E -4.87%K -9.99%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-05-09 18:39
1xBet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -3.55%E -1.97%K -4.44%G +0.000%	1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -9.95%E -5.13%K -10.59%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-05-09 18:44

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%	4.1%	2026-05-09 20:24