The School of College Oddsodds.college
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Troy Trojans v Arkansas St Red Wolves

Kickoff: 2026-04-02 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Troy Trojans (Local)

Prediction 43.68%2.29fair odd
EV +4.83%
Edge +2.01%
Kelly +3.45%
Growth +0.167%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.39%43.24%43.49%45.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.152.152.4048.78%46.55%46.62%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arkansas St Red Wolves (Visit)

Prediction 56.32%1.78fair odd
EV -3.69%
Edge -2.16%
Kelly -5.20%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.67%56.76%56.51%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.661.671.7164.10%60.17%59.70%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Troy Trojans (Local): 43.68%; Arkansas St Red Wolves (Visit): 56.32%. For Troy Trojans (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.29. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.83%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV +4.83%E +2.01%K +3.45%G +0.167%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -12.14%E -7.78%K -21.68%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-02 22:10
BetMGM🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.90%E -1.77%K -3.25%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.07%E -4.29%K -10.88%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-01 23:20
MyBookie.ag🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 42.67%EV -4.34%E -1.98%K -3.65%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 57.33%EV -8.20%E -5.03%K -13.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-02 22:14
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.82%E -2.85%K -6.98%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-02 15:20
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -6.09%E -2.83%K -5.29%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -8.76%E -5.41%K -14.13%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-02 22:39
1xBet🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 43.68%EV -6.52%E -3.05%K -5.72%G +0.000%1.66I 60.24%NM 56.32%EV -6.51%E -3.92%K -9.86%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-02 19:29
Caesars🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -8.27%E -3.94%K -7.52%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -3.69%E -2.16%K -5.20%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-02 17:39
BetRivers🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -10.46%E -5.10%K -9.96%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -4.26%E -2.50%K -6.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-02 19:49
betPARX🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -10.46%E -5.10%K -9.96%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -4.26%E -2.50%K -6.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-02 19:50
Bally Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -10.46%E -5.10%K -9.96%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -4.26%E -2.50%K -6.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-02 19:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%8.3%2026-04-02 22:50