The School of College Oddsodds.college
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Texas State Bobcats v South Alabama Jaguars

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 00:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas State Bobcats (Local)

Prediction 58.47%1.71fair odd
EV -2.36%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -3.53%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.05%58.80%58.09%61.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.531.601.621.6765.36%62.37%61.92%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

South Alabama Jaguars (Visit)

Prediction 41.53%2.41fair odd
EV +3.84%
Edge +1.53%
Kelly +2.56%
Growth +0.098%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.42%41.20%41.91%43.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.132.272.242.5046.95%44.13%44.74%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Texas State Bobcats (Local): 58.47%; South Alabama Jaguars (Visit): 41.53%. For South Alabama Jaguars (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.41. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.84%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -8.79%E -5.64%K -15.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV +3.84%E +1.53%K +2.56%G +0.098%4.1%2026-05-01 17:49
BetUS🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -10.55%E -6.89%K -19.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV +1.76%E +0.718%K +1.21%G +0.021%6.2%2026-05-01 16:59
BetMGM🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -8.21%E -5.23%K -14.40%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -2.39%E -1.02%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-01 17:25
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -7.04%E -4.43%K -11.93%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -4.47%E -1.94%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-01 15:45
theScore Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -5.29%E -3.26%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -6.55%E -2.91%K -5.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-01 23:20
DraftKings🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -5.29%E -3.26%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.24I 44.64%NM 41.97%EV -6.96%E -3.11%K -5.62%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-01 15:45
MyBookie.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -5.87%E -3.65%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -7.38%E -3.31%K -6.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-01 23:24
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -5.87%E -3.65%K -9.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -8.62%E -3.92%K -7.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-01 23:19
BetRivers🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -5.29%E -3.26%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -9.45%E -4.34%K -8.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-01 18:30
Bally Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -5.29%E -3.26%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -9.45%E -4.34%K -8.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-01 18:30
betPARX🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.37%EV -5.29%E -3.26%K -8.53%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 42.63%EV -9.45%E -4.34%K -8.01%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-01 18:29
1xBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.05%EV -2.36%E -1.41%K -3.53%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.95%EV -11.53%E -5.41%K -10.21%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-01 17:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.61I 62.11%NM 57.85%2.21I 45.25%NM 42.15%7.4%2026-05-02 00:19