The School of College Oddsodds.college
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Texas State Bobcats v Marshall Thundering Herd

Kickoff: 2026-05-16 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas State Bobcats (Local)

Prediction 71.22%1.40fair odd
EV -4.57%
Edge -3.41%
Kelly -13.43%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.48%71.30%71.11%72.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.321.321.3476.92%75.82%75.76%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Marshall Thundering Herd (Visit)

Prediction 28.78%3.47fair odd
EV -2.14%
Edge -0.630%
Kelly -0.893%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.66%28.70%28.89%29.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.273.253.4031.25%30.60%30.77%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Texas State Bobcats (Local): 71.22%; Marshall Thundering Herd (Visit): 28.78%. For Marshall Thundering Herd (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.47. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.40, with an expected value of -2.14%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.57%E -3.41%K -13.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -7.90%E -2.47%K -3.59%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-16 04:35
1xBet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.76%EV -5.28%E -3.97%K -16.00%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 28.24%EV -2.72%E -0.804%K -1.14%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-16 10:45
BetMGM🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.28%E -3.97%K -16.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.46%E -1.99%K -2.87%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-16 12:03
Bovada🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.28%E -3.97%K -16.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -7.90%E -2.47%K -3.59%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-16 12:04
MyBookie.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.30%EV -5.99%E -4.54%K -18.72%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.70%EV -5.60%E -1.71%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 16:55
theScore Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.70%E -5.12%K -21.63%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -5.02%E -1.52%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-16 08:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 70.95%EV -6.70%E -5.12%K -21.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -7.90%E -2.47%K -3.59%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-16 12:20
FanDuel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.42%E -5.70%K -24.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -2.14%E -0.630%K -0.893%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 16:45
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.42%E -5.70%K -24.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.90%E -2.47%K -3.59%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.00I 100.00%NM 80.00%4.00I 25.00%NM 20.00%25.0%2026-05-16 17:45