Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas State Bobcats v Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns

Kickoff: 2026-03-20 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas State Bobcats (Local)

Prediction 38.01%2.63fair odd
EV -1.18%
Edge -0.454%
Kelly -0.738%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.27%38.07%37.50%40.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.502.532.6042.55%39.97%39.53%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (Visit)

Prediction 61.99%1.61fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -4.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.95%61.93%62.50%63.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.481.511.501.5767.57%66.14%66.67%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Texas State Bobcats (Local): 38.01%; Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns (Visit): 61.99%. For Texas State Bobcats (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.63. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.60, with an expected value of -1.18%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -1.18%E -0.454%K -0.738%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -8.25%E -5.58%K -17.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 19:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -1.18%E -0.454%K -0.738%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -8.25%E -5.58%K -17.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 19:54
Caesars🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -3.08%E -1.21%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -5.15%E -3.37%K -9.72%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-20 20:34
BetUS🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -3.08%E -1.21%K -1.99%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -8.25%E -5.58%K -17.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-20 17:45
DraftKings🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV -3.46%E -1.36%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -7.01%E -4.67%K -14.02%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-20 17:35
MyBookie.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.16%EV -4.22%E -1.67%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 62.84%EV -7.63%E -5.12%K -15.57%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-20 19:10
Bovada🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.98%E -1.99%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -7.01%E -4.67%K -14.02%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-20 17:38
1xBet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 38.83%EV -8.40%E -3.49%K -5.96%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 61.17%EV -5.15%E -3.37%K -9.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-20 19:20
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -8.78%E -3.66%K -6.27%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -3.29%E -2.11%K -5.88%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-20 17:50
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -10.68%E -4.55%K -7.91%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -2.67%E -1.70%K -4.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-20 16:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.