Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas Longhorns v UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros

Kickoff: 2026-02-25 00:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas Longhorns (Local)

Prediction 79.07%1.26fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -1.58%
Kelly -8.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.64%78.89%79.09%80.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.191.191.2486.96%83.80%84.03%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros (Visit)

Prediction 20.93%4.78fair odd
EV +0.478%
Edge +0.100%
Kelly +0.126%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.33%21.11%20.91%24.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.424.504.8025.97%22.64%22.22%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Texas Longhorns (Local): 79.07%; UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros (Visit): 20.93%. For UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.78. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.478%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 80.67%EV -9.07%E -7.89%K -60.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV +0.478%E +0.100%K +0.126%G +0.001%7.8%2026-02-24 23:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -6.70%E -5.68%K -37.23%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -0.568%E -0.120%K -0.152%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-24 23:15
888sport🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.12%E -4.27%K -25.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-24 22:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.12%E -4.27%K -25.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-24 22:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -5.12%E -4.27%K -25.60%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-24 23:00
BetMGM🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.09%EV -5.91%E -4.97%K -31.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.91%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-24 17:10
Bovada🎯1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -6.70%E -5.68%K -37.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.0%2026-02-24 09:04
Betway🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.49%E -6.40%K -44.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-24 23:15
BetRivers🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.49%E -6.40%K -44.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-24 18:00
Bally Bet🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.49%E -6.40%K -44.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-24 18:00
betPARX🎯1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.49%E -6.40%K -44.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -5.80%E -1.29%K -1.66%G +0.000%7.7%2026-02-24 18:00
DraftKings🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -5.12%E -4.27%K -25.60%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -7.89%E -1.79%K -2.32%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-24 04:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.25%EV -1.96%E -1.58%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.75%EV -16.69%E -4.19%K -5.60%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-24 23:55
LowVig.ag🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.25%EV -1.96%E -1.58%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.75%EV -16.69%E -4.19%K -5.60%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-24 23:55
BetUS🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%EV -1.96%E -1.58%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -19.41%E -5.04%K -6.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-24 20:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.