The School of College Oddsodds.college
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Texas Longhorns v Tarleton State Texans

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 23:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas Longhorns (Local)

Prediction 87.29%1.15fair odd
EV -3.98%
Edge -3.62%
Kelly -39.78%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.75%87.20%87.27%88.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.061.081.081.1094.34%92.85%92.59%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tarleton State Texans (Visit)

Prediction 12.71%7.87fair odd
EV +1.66%
Edge +0.207%
Kelly +0.237%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 8.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.70%12.80%12.73%14.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.257.008.0015.38%13.79%14.29%12.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Texas Longhorns (Local): 87.29%; Tarleton State Texans (Visit): 12.71%. For Tarleton State Texans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.87. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.66%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -5.72%E -5.30%K -71.55%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV +1.66%E +0.207%K +0.237%G +0.004%5.1%2026-03-17 21:24
FanDuel🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -6.60%E -6.17%K -94.24%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV +1.66%E +0.207%K +0.237%G +0.004%6.0%2026-03-17 18:45
theScore Bet🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -7.47%E -7.05%K -124.49%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +1.66%E +0.207%K +0.237%G +0.004%6.8%2026-03-17 13:05
888sport🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -7.47%E -7.05%K -124.49%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +1.66%E +0.207%K +0.237%G +0.004%6.8%2026-03-17 21:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -7.47%E -7.05%K -124.49%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +1.66%E +0.207%K +0.237%G +0.004%6.8%2026-03-17 21:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -7.47%E -7.05%K -124.49%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV +1.66%E +0.207%K +0.237%G +0.004%6.8%2026-03-17 21:25
DraftKings🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.98%E -3.62%K -39.78%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -11.05%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-16 23:00
Bovada🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.72%E -5.30%K -71.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -11.05%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-16 23:29
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.72%E -5.30%K -71.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -11.05%E -1.58%K -1.84%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-17 18:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.44%EV -4.85%E -4.45%K -53.90%G +0.000%6.95I 14.39%NM 13.56%EV -11.68%E -1.68%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-17 17:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.44%EV -4.85%E -4.45%K -53.90%G +0.000%6.95I 14.39%NM 13.56%EV -11.68%E -1.68%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-17 17:05
1xBet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.55%EV -5.72%E -5.30%K -71.55%G +0.000%6.95I 14.39%NM 13.45%EV -11.68%E -1.68%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-17 22:35
MyBookie.ag🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.47%EV -5.72%E -5.30%K -71.55%G +0.000%6.90I 14.49%NM 13.53%EV -12.32%E -1.79%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-17 18:55
BetMGM🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.10%EV -4.85%E -4.45%K -53.90%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -14.23%E -2.11%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-16 23:50
Fliff🎯1.06I 94.34%NM 86.25%EV -7.47%E -7.05%K -124.49%G +0.000%6.65I 15.04%NM 13.75%EV -15.50%E -2.33%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-17 18:45
BetUS🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 85.83%EV -4.85%E -4.45%K -53.90%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.17%EV -16.13%E -2.44%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-17 17:20
Betway🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -5.72%E -5.30%K -71.55%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -17.40%E -2.68%K -3.16%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-17 18:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.08I 92.59%NM 88.36%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.64%4.8%2026-03-17 23:20