Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas Longhorns v Mississippi St Bulldogs

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 00:35 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

58%

42%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas Longhorns (Local)

Prediction 57.89%1.73fair odd

EV -2.16%

Edge -1.28%

Kelly -3.14%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.69

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.70%57.73%58.67%62.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.511.621.621.6966.23%61.88%61.73%59.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mississippi St Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 42.11%2.37fair odd

EV +4.43%

Edge +1.79%

Kelly +2.99%

Growth +0.133%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.84%42.27%41.33%44.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.102.252.232.4847.62%44.54%44.84%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Texas Longhorns (Local): 57.89%; Mississippi St Bulldogs (Visit): 42.11%. For Mississippi St Bulldogs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.37. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.48, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.43%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetUS🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.16%EV -12.59%E -8.33%K -24.68%G +0.000%	2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV +4.43%E +1.79%K +2.99%G +0.133%	6.5%	2026-05-01 23:05
Bovada🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -10.85%E -7.04%K -20.09%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV +1.06%E +0.443%K +0.759%G +0.008%	6.6%	2026-05-02 00:29
Caesars🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.22%E -3.84%K -10.03%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -3.15%E -1.37%K -2.42%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-05-01 20:14
BetMGM🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -6.80%E -4.22%K -11.14%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -3.15%E -1.37%K -2.42%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-05-01 16:09
DraftKings🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.38%E -4.61%K -12.29%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.15%E -1.37%K -2.42%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-02 00:29
FanDuel🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.38%E -4.61%K -12.29%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.15%E -1.37%K -2.42%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-02 00:30
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.07%EV -6.80%E -4.22%K -11.14%G +0.000%	2.23I 44.84%NM 41.93%EV -6.10%E -2.73%K -4.96%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-02 00:29
BetRivers🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 56.99%EV -5.64%E -3.46%K -8.95%G +0.000%	2.16I 46.30%NM 43.01%EV -9.04%E -4.19%K -7.80%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-01 18:24
betPARX🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 56.99%EV -5.64%E -3.46%K -8.95%G +0.000%	2.16I 46.30%NM 43.01%EV -9.04%E -4.19%K -7.80%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-01 18:25
Bally Bet🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 56.99%EV -5.64%E -3.46%K -8.95%G +0.000%	2.16I 46.30%NM 43.01%EV -9.04%E -4.19%K -7.80%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-01 18:24
theScore Bet🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -2.16%E -1.28%K -3.14%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -9.46%E -4.40%K -8.23%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-05-02 00:29
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -3.32%E -1.99%K -4.96%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -9.46%E -4.40%K -8.23%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-02 00:30
Betway🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -3.32%E -1.99%K -4.96%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -11.57%E -5.51%K -10.52%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-05-02 00:29

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%	2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%	5.0%	2026-05-02 00:29