The School of College Oddsodds.college
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Texas Longhorns v Michigan St Spartans

Kickoff: 2026-02-21 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas Longhorns (Local)

Prediction 85.96%1.16fair odd
EV -5.45%
Edge -4.95%
Kelly -54.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
84.51%85.85%85.75%87.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.071.091.081.1093.46%92.08%92.59%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Michigan St Spartans (Visit)

Prediction 14.04%7.12fair odd
EV +1.81%
Edge +0.250%
Kelly +0.290%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 7.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.97%14.15%14.25%15.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.856.626.507.2517.09%15.11%15.38%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Texas Longhorns (Local): 85.96%; Michigan St Spartans (Visit): 14.04%. For Michigan St Spartans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.12. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.81%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bovada🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 87.03%EV -7.17%E -6.64%K -89.58%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.97%EV +1.81%E +0.250%K +0.290%G +0.005%6.4%2026-02-21 14:09
DraftKings🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -5.45%E -4.95%K -54.47%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -1.70%E -0.243%K -0.283%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-21 14:10
FanDuel🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -6.31%E -5.79%K -70.07%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -1.70%E -0.243%K -0.283%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 16:15
888sport🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -7.17%E -6.64%K -89.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -1.70%E -0.243%K -0.283%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-21 14:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -7.17%E -6.64%K -89.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -1.70%E -0.243%K -0.283%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-21 14:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -7.17%E -6.64%K -89.58%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -1.70%E -0.243%K -0.283%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-21 14:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.09I 91.74%NM 86.10%EV -6.31%E -5.79%K -70.07%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -5.21%E -0.772%K -0.906%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-21 14:40
BetMGM🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.53%EV -5.45%E -4.95%K -54.47%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.47%EV -8.72%E -1.34%K -1.59%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-21 02:30
Betway🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -7.17%E -6.64%K -89.58%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -8.72%E -1.34%K -1.59%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-21 14:39
BetRivers🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.56%EV -7.17%E -6.64%K -89.58%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.44%EV -10.13%E -1.58%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-21 14:40
Bally Bet🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.56%EV -7.17%E -6.64%K -89.58%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.44%EV -10.13%E -1.58%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-21 14:40
betPARX🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 85.56%EV -7.17%E -6.64%K -89.58%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.44%EV -10.13%E -1.58%K -1.88%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-21 14:40
BetUS🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 85.03%EV -5.45%E -4.95%K -54.47%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.97%EV -12.23%E -1.96%K -2.33%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-21 16:50
theScore Bet🎯1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -5.45%E -4.95%K -54.47%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -15.74%E -2.62%K -3.15%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-21 17:45
1xBet🎯1.07I 93.46%NM 84.54%EV -8.03%E -7.50%K -114.65%G +0.000%5.85I 17.09%NM 15.46%EV -17.85%E -3.05%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.6%2026-02-21 17:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.