Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas A&M Aggies v UTSA Roadrunners

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas A&M Aggies (Local)

Prediction 69.28%1.44fair odd
EV -5.09%
Edge -3.71%
Kelly -13.75%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.37

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.29%69.36%68.81%70.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.361.361.3774.63%73.46%73.53%72.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UTSA Roadrunners (Visit)

Prediction 30.72%3.26fair odd
EV -0.159%
Edge -0.049%
Kelly -0.071%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.50%30.64%31.19%31.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.043.003.2533.90%32.94%33.33%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Texas A&M Aggies (Local): 69.28%; UTSA Roadrunners (Visit): 30.72%. For UTSA Roadrunners (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.26. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.25, with an expected value of -0.159%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.79%EV -5.09%E -3.71%K -13.75%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.21%EV -7.22%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-21 13:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.79%EV -5.09%E -3.71%K -13.75%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.21%EV -7.22%E -2.39%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-21 13:40
DraftKings🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.09%E -3.71%K -13.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-20 23:09
1xBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.36%EV -5.09%E -3.71%K -13.75%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.64%EV -9.07%E -3.06%K -4.63%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-21 11:29
BetUS🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -5.09%E -3.71%K -13.75%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -9.38%E -3.18%K -4.81%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-21 13:45
Caesars🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.78%E -4.25%K -16.05%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -0.159%E -0.049%K -0.071%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-21 15:00
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.78%E -4.25%K -16.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -4.77%E -1.54%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-21 11:05
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.78%E -4.25%K -16.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-20 23:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.78%E -4.25%K -16.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-20 23:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.78%E -4.25%K -16.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-20 23:35
Bovada🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.78%E -4.25%K -16.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-21 00:23
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.78%E -4.25%K -16.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-21 01:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.78%E -4.25%K -16.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -7.84%E -2.61%K -3.92%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-21 14:04
MyBookie.ag🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.25%EV -6.47%E -4.79%K -18.49%G +0.000%3.04I 32.89%NM 30.75%EV -6.61%E -2.17%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-21 14:09
FanDuel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -7.17%E -5.35%K -21.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -1.70%E -0.530%K -0.771%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-21 11:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%5.8%2026-04-21 15:30