Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas A&M Aggies v Texas State Bobcats

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

82%

18%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Texas A&M Aggies (Local)

Prediction 81.92%1.22fair odd

EV -4.15%

Edge -3.55%

Kelly -24.40%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

80.70%82.02%81.70%83.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.111.141.141.1790.09%87.68%87.72%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Texas State Bobcats (Visit)

Prediction 18.08%5.53fair odd

EV +1.22%

Edge +0.219%

Kelly +0.266%

Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 5.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

16.54%17.98%18.30%19.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.855.245.215.6020.62%19.08%19.19%17.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Texas A&M Aggies (Local): 81.92%; Texas State Bobcats (Visit): 18.08%. For Texas State Bobcats (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.53. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.22%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetRivers🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 83.46%EV -9.06%E -8.17%K -82.40%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV +1.22%E +0.219%K +0.266%G +0.003%	7.9%	2026-03-17 18:35
Bally Bet🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 83.46%EV -9.06%E -8.17%K -82.40%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV +1.22%E +0.219%K +0.266%G +0.003%	7.9%	2026-03-17 18:35
betPARX🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 83.46%EV -9.06%E -8.17%K -82.40%G +0.000%	5.60I 17.86%NM 16.54%EV +1.22%E +0.219%K +0.266%G +0.003%	7.9%	2026-03-17 18:35
888sport🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.61%E -5.80%K -47.19%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -0.583%E -0.106%K -0.129%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-17 18:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.61%E -5.80%K -47.19%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -0.583%E -0.106%K -0.129%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-17 18:40
888sport (SE)🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.61%E -5.80%K -47.19%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -0.583%E -0.106%K -0.129%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-17 18:40
FanDuel🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.61%E -5.80%K -47.19%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -0.583%E -0.106%K -0.129%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-17 18:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.61%E -5.80%K -47.19%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -0.583%E -0.106%K -0.129%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-17 18:40
theScore Bet🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 82.29%EV -7.43%E -6.57%K -57.12%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.71%EV -5.10%E -0.972%K -1.20%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-03-17 18:55
1xBet🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.08%EV -6.61%E -5.80%K -47.19%G +0.000%	5.22I 19.16%NM 17.92%EV -5.64%E -1.08%K -1.34%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-17 20:05
Caesars🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -4.15%E -3.55%K -24.40%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -6.01%E -1.15%K -1.43%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-03-17 13:50
DraftKings🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.97%E -4.28%K -31.05%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -9.62%E -1.92%K -2.41%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-16 22:55
BetMGM🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -4.97%E -4.28%K -31.05%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -9.62%E -1.92%K -2.41%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-16 23:45
Bovada🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -5.79%E -5.03%K -38.58%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -9.62%E -1.92%K -2.41%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-16 23:29
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -5.79%E -5.03%K -38.58%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -9.62%E -1.92%K -2.41%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-17 20:19
Fliff🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -8.24%E -7.36%K -68.71%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -9.62%E -1.92%K -2.41%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-03-17 18:40
Betway🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 81.70%EV -8.24%E -7.36%K -68.71%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.30%EV -9.62%E -1.92%K -2.41%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-03-17 18:40
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.14%EV -4.97%E -4.28%K -31.05%G +0.000%	4.99I 20.04%NM 18.86%EV -9.80%E -1.96%K -2.46%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-17 17:05
LowVig.ag🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.14%EV -4.97%E -4.28%K -31.05%G +0.000%	4.99I 20.04%NM 18.86%EV -9.80%E -1.96%K -2.46%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-17 17:05
BetUS🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 80.70%EV -4.97%E -4.28%K -31.05%G +0.000%	4.85I 20.62%NM 19.30%EV -12.33%E -2.54%K -3.20%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-17 17:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.86%	5.56I 17.99%NM 17.14%	4.9%	2026-03-17 22:40