Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tennessee Volunteers v Missouri Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-03-22 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tennessee Volunteers (Local)

Prediction 68.66%1.46fair odd
EV -3.88%
Edge -2.77%
Kelly -9.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.44%68.75%68.49%70.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.371.361.4075.19%73.18%73.53%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Missouri Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 31.34%3.19fair odd
EV +1.86%
Edge +0.574%
Kelly +0.829%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.50%31.25%31.51%32.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.852.992.973.2535.09%33.45%33.67%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tennessee Volunteers (Local): 68.66%; Missouri Tigers (Visit): 31.34%. For Missouri Tigers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.19. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.86%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -6.63%E -4.87%K -18.41%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV +1.86%E +0.574%K +0.829%G +0.015%4.3%2026-03-22 15:34
BetMGM🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -7.31%E -5.42%K -20.89%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -2.84%E -0.915%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-22 14:49
LowVig.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.23%EV -6.63%E -4.87%K -18.41%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.77%EV -4.09%E -1.34%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-22 15:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.23%EV -6.63%E -4.87%K -18.41%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.77%EV -4.09%E -1.34%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-22 15:30
theScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.25%E -3.81%K -13.82%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-22 15:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.63%E -4.87%K -18.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.97%E -1.99%K -2.99%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-22 13:09
BetUS🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.63%E -4.87%K -18.41%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.34%EV -6.60%E -2.21%K -3.33%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-22 15:30
FanDuel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.20%EV -5.25%E -3.81%K -13.82%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.80%EV -7.23%E -2.44%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-22 14:55
MyBookie.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.52%EV -6.63%E -4.87%K -18.41%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.48%EV -7.23%E -2.44%K -3.69%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-22 15:09
Fliff🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 68.93%EV -8.69%E -6.53%K -26.32%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -7.54%E -2.56%K -3.87%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-22 14:54
DraftKings🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.88%E -2.77%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.11%E -3.14%K -4.79%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-22 15:09
Bovada🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.25%E -3.81%K -13.82%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -9.11%E -3.14%K -4.79%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-22 16:54
1xBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.45%EV -4.57%E -3.29%K -11.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.55%EV -9.73%E -3.38%K -5.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-22 15:15
Betway🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -6.63%E -4.87%K -18.41%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -10.67%E -3.74%K -5.77%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-22 15:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.39I 71.94%NM 68.26%2.99I 33.44%NM 31.74%5.4%2026-03-22 16:19