Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tennessee Volunteers v LSU Tigers

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

43%

57%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tennessee Volunteers (Local)

Prediction 43.41%2.30fair odd

EV +2.02%

Edge +0.860%

Kelly +1.50%

Growth +0.030%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.90%43.48%43.69%48.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.922.162.172.3552.08%46.38%46.19%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

LSU Tigers (Visit)

Prediction 56.59%1.77fair odd

EV +1.29%

Edge +0.721%

Kelly +1.63%

Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

51.75%56.52%56.31%60.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.561.671.671.7964.10%60.02%59.88%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tennessee Volunteers (Local): 43.41%; LSU Tigers (Visit): 56.59%. For Tennessee Volunteers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.30. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.02%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV +2.02%E +0.860%K +1.50%G +0.030%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -11.16%E -7.11%K -19.58%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-04 21:39
Bovada🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV +2.02%E +0.860%K +1.50%G +0.030%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -11.72%E -7.52%K -20.94%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-04 21:38
Caesars🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -0.150%E -0.065%K -0.115%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -8.33%E -5.14%K -13.43%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-04-04 21:44
BetUS🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -2.32%E -1.03%K -1.86%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -8.33%E -5.14%K -13.43%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-04 21:50
LowVig.ag🎯	2.24I 44.64%NM 41.97%EV -2.75%E -1.23%K -2.22%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -8.33%E -5.14%K -13.43%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-04-04 21:49
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.24I 44.64%NM 41.97%EV -2.75%E -1.23%K -2.22%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%EV -8.33%E -5.14%K -13.43%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-04-04 21:50
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.24I 44.64%NM 41.67%EV -2.75%E -1.23%K -2.22%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.33%EV -9.46%E -5.91%K -15.77%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-04-04 21:48
FanDuel🎯	2.18I 45.87%NM 43.38%EV -5.36%E -2.46%K -4.54%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.62%EV -5.50%E -3.29%K -8.21%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-04-04 21:55
theScore Bet🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.66%E -3.10%K -5.79%G +0.000%	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.37%E -2.58%K -6.33%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-04-04 21:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.66%E -3.10%K -5.79%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.50%E -3.29%K -8.21%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-04-04 21:50
BetMGM🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -8.83%E -4.21%K -8.03%G +0.000%	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -4.37%E -2.58%K -6.33%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-04-04 21:49
Betway🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.83%E -4.21%K -8.03%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.50%E -3.29%K -8.21%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-04-04 21:39
1xBet🎯	2.09I 47.85%NM 44.71%EV -9.27%E -4.43%K -8.50%G +0.000%	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.29%EV -4.37%E -2.58%K -6.33%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-04-04 21:54
BetRivers🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 48.25%EV -16.65%E -8.67%K -18.09%G +0.000%	1.79I 55.87%NM 51.75%EV +1.29%E +0.721%K +1.63%G +0.021%	7.9%	2026-04-04 14:04
betPARX🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 48.25%EV -16.65%E -8.67%K -18.09%G +0.000%	1.79I 55.87%NM 51.75%EV +1.29%E +0.721%K +1.63%G +0.021%	7.9%	2026-04-04 14:04
Bally Bet🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 48.25%EV -16.65%E -8.67%K -18.09%G +0.000%	1.79I 55.87%NM 51.75%EV +1.29%E +0.721%K +1.63%G +0.021%	7.9%	2026-04-04 14:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%	1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%	5.2%	2026-04-04 21:54