Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

TCU Horned Frogs v Utah Utes

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TCU Horned Frogs (Local)

Prediction 72.00%1.39fair odd
EV -4.24%
Edge -3.19%
Kelly -12.85%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.67%72.23%72.03%73.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.301.311.3379.37%76.96%76.34%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Utah Utes (Visit)

Prediction 28.00%3.57fair odd
EV -0.595%
Edge -0.168%
Kelly -0.233%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.20%27.77%27.97%29.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.183.383.403.5531.45%29.61%29.41%28.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TCU Horned Frogs (Local): 72.00%; Utah Utes (Visit): 28.00%. For Utah Utes (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.57. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.55, with an expected value of -0.595%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.24%E -3.19%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.80%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-09 11:29
DraftKings🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -4.96%E -3.76%K -15.51%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-09 03:44
LowVig.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.30%EV -4.96%E -3.76%K -15.51%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.70%EV -8.16%E -2.49%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 13:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.30%EV -4.96%E -3.76%K -15.51%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.70%EV -8.16%E -2.49%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-09 13:04
BetUS🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.67%EV -4.96%E -3.76%K -15.51%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 29.33%EV -10.96%E -3.45%K -5.03%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-09 13:24
BetMGM🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -5.68%E -4.34%K -18.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -4.80%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-09 03:48
Bovada🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -5.68%E -4.34%K -18.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-09 05:35
1xBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.40%EV -5.68%E -4.34%K -18.33%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 28.60%EV -8.44%E -2.58%K -3.72%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 16:20
theScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.40%E -4.92%K -21.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.80%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-09 16:34
FanDuel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.35%EV -7.12%E -5.52%K -24.56%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.65%EV -0.595%E -0.168%K -0.233%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-09 17:14
MyBookie.ag🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -7.12%E -5.52%K -24.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -4.80%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-09 16:24
Betway🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.59%EV -7.12%E -5.52%K -24.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.41%EV -9.00%E -2.77%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-09 13:59
BetRivers🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -9.28%E -7.37%K -35.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -0.595%E -0.168%K -0.233%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-09 16:14
Bally Bet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -9.28%E -7.37%K -35.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -0.595%E -0.168%K -0.233%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-09 16:14
betPARX🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -9.28%E -7.37%K -35.70%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -0.595%E -0.168%K -0.233%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-09 16:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.33I 75.19%NM 72.00%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.00%4.4%2026-05-09 18:49