Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

TCU Horned Frogs v Utah Utes

Kickoff: 2026-05-10 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TCU Horned Frogs (Local)

Prediction 68.63%1.46fair odd
EV -5.29%
Edge -3.84%
Kelly -13.93%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.38%68.87%68.79%71.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.311.361.371.3876.34%73.28%72.99%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Utah Utes (Visit)

Prediction 31.37%3.19fair odd
EV +3.53%
Edge +1.07%
Kelly +1.53%
Growth +0.054%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.42%31.13%31.21%32.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.852.993.003.3035.09%33.48%33.33%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TCU Horned Frogs (Local): 68.63%; Utah Utes (Visit): 31.37%. For Utah Utes (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.19. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.53%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -10.10%E -7.71%K -32.57%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV +3.53%E +1.07%K +1.53%G +0.054%6.6%2026-05-10 16:54
Caesars🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -5.29%E -3.84%K -13.93%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -2.75%E -0.887%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-10 07:28
Bovada🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -8.04%E -6.00%K -23.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -2.75%E -0.887%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-10 16:13
LowVig.ag🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.79%EV -5.98%E -4.36%K -16.16%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.21%EV -5.26%E -1.74%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-10 15:19
BetOnline.ag🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.79%EV -5.98%E -4.36%K -16.16%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 31.21%EV -5.26%E -1.74%K -2.60%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-10 15:19
DraftKings🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -5.98%E -4.36%K -16.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -5.89%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-10 04:09
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.67%E -4.90%K -18.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.89%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-10 05:44
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.67%E -4.90%K -18.51%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -5.89%E -1.96%K -2.94%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-10 12:04
1xBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.36%EV -5.98%E -4.36%K -16.16%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.64%EV -7.14%E -2.41%K -3.64%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-10 17:00
MyBookie.ag🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -5.98%E -4.36%K -16.16%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -7.45%E -2.53%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-10 16:58
BetUS🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 68.29%EV -5.98%E -4.36%K -16.16%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.71%EV -7.45%E -2.53%K -3.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-10 15:29
BetRivers🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -5.29%E -3.84%K -13.93%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -10.59%E -3.72%K -5.72%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 16:50
Bally Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -5.29%E -3.84%K -13.93%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -10.59%E -3.72%K -5.72%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 16:49
betPARX🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -5.29%E -3.84%K -13.93%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -10.59%E -3.72%K -5.72%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-10 16:49
Betway🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.70%EV -6.67%E -4.90%K -18.51%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.30%EV -10.59%E -3.72%K -5.72%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-10 12:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.33I 75.19%NM 69.21%2.99I 33.44%NM 30.79%8.6%2026-05-10 17:34