Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tarleton State Texans v UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

5 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

59%

41%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tarleton State Texans (Local)

Prediction 59.17%1.69fair odd

EV -5.32%

Edge -3.33%

Kelly -8.87%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.81%59.17%58.97%59.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.571.591.591.6063.69%62.97%62.89%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros (Visit)

Prediction 40.83%2.45fair odd

EV -4.06%

Edge -1.73%

Kelly -3.01%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

40.36%40.83%41.03%41.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.252.292.302.3544.44%43.59%43.48%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tarleton State Texans (Local): 59.17%; UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros (Visit): 40.83%. For UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.45. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.35, with an expected value of -4.06%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (5 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -5.32%E -3.33%K -8.87%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.10%E -2.65%K -4.69%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-09 04:54
theScore Bet🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -5.91%E -3.72%K -10.02%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -4.06%E -1.73%K -3.01%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-05-09 19:40
Bovada🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.91%E -3.72%K -10.02%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -6.10%E -2.65%K -4.69%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-09 05:35
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 58.81%EV -5.91%E -3.72%K -10.02%G +0.000%	2.27I 44.05%NM 41.19%EV -7.32%E -3.23%K -5.77%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-09 14:09
Betway🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -7.10%E -4.52%K -12.45%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.14%E -3.62%K -6.51%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-05-09 15:39

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.