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Tarleton State Texans v UC Santa Barbara Gauchos

Kickoff: 2026-05-31 17:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tarleton State Texans (Local)

Prediction 36.05%2.77fair odd
EV +0.948%
Edge +0.338%
Kelly +0.526%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.81%36.20%36.10%38.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.432.582.602.8041.15%38.78%38.46%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Visit)

Prediction 63.95%1.56fair odd
EV -1.52%
Edge -0.988%
Kelly -2.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.21%63.80%63.90%66.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.491.491.5469.93%67.14%67.11%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tarleton State Texans (Local): 36.05%; UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (Visit): 63.95%. For Tarleton State Texans (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.77. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.948%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV +0.948%E +0.338%K +0.526%G +0.005%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -8.56%E -5.98%K -19.90%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-31 16:59
Caesars🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -2.66%E -0.984%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -5.36%E -3.62%K -11.16%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-31 16:59
Pinnacle🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -3.74%E -1.40%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -5.36%E -3.62%K -11.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-31 16:59
FanDuel🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.10%EV -5.54%E -2.12%K -3.42%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.90%EV -5.36%E -3.62%K -11.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-31 17:00
1xBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -6.26%E -2.41%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -3.44%E -2.28%K -6.74%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-31 16:52
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.26%E -2.41%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.08%E -2.72%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-31 17:00
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.26%E -2.41%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.36%E -3.62%K -11.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-31 17:00
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -6.26%E -2.41%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -6.00%E -4.08%K -12.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-31 16:59
Betway🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.26%E -2.41%K -3.91%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.92%E -5.50%K -17.99%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-31 17:00
MyBookie.ag🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.95%EV -7.71%E -3.01%K -4.94%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.05%EV -4.08%E -2.72%K -8.16%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-31 17:00
BetUS🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -8.07%E -3.16%K -5.20%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -5.36%E -3.62%K -11.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-31 17:00
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.87%E -3.95%K -6.58%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.08%E -2.72%K -8.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-31 16:59
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.87%E -3.95%K -6.58%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.08%E -2.72%K -8.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-31 16:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -9.87%E -3.95%K -6.58%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.08%E -2.72%K -8.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-31 16:59
LowVig.ag🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -12.39%E -5.10%K -8.67%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -1.52%E -0.988%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-31 17:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -12.39%E -5.10%K -8.67%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -1.52%E -0.988%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-31 17:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎2.64I 37.88%NM 36.84%1.54I 64.94%NM 63.16%2.8%2026-05-31 16:59