Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Stanford Cardinal v NC State Wolfpack

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 01:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Stanford Cardinal (Local)

Prediction 37.50%2.67fair odd
EV -2.49%
Edge -0.960%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.12%37.68%37.12%39.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.492.502.6042.02%40.20%40.00%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

NC State Wolfpack (Visit)

Prediction 62.50%1.60fair odd
EV -0.628%
Edge -0.395%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.15%62.32%62.88%63.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.451.511.521.5968.97%66.19%66.01%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Stanford Cardinal (Local): 37.50%; NC State Wolfpack (Visit): 62.50%. For NC State Wolfpack (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.60. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.59, with an expected value of -0.628%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -2.49%E -0.960%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -7.50%E -5.07%K -15.63%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-08 16:39
BetMGM🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -2.49%E -0.960%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -7.50%E -5.07%K -15.63%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-08 19:04
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -2.49%E -0.960%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -8.13%E -5.53%K -17.29%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-08 16:44
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -4.37%E -1.71%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -9.38%E -6.47%K -20.84%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-08 16:14
Bally Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -4.37%E -1.71%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -9.38%E -6.47%K -20.84%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-08 16:14
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -4.37%E -1.71%K -2.82%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -9.38%E -6.47%K -20.84%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-08 16:13
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.25%E -2.50%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.38%E -2.86%K -8.26%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-08 20:34
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.66%EV -6.25%E -2.50%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 62.34%EV -5.63%E -3.73%K -11.04%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-08 20:34
MyBookie.ag🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.58%EV -9.25%E -3.82%K -6.51%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.42%EV -5.00%E -3.29%K -9.62%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 20:09
Caesars🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -10.00%E -4.16%K -7.14%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -0.628%E -0.395%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-08 18:19
BetUS🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -10.00%E -4.16%K -7.14%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -2.50%E -1.60%K -4.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-08 19:59
LowVig.ag🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.49%EV -10.37%E -4.34%K -7.46%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%EV -2.50%E -1.60%K -4.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-08 19:54
BetOnline.ag🎯2.39I 41.84%NM 39.49%EV -10.37%E -4.34%K -7.46%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%EV -2.50%E -1.60%K -4.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-08 19:54
1xBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -10.75%E -4.51%K -7.79%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 60.71%EV -3.75%E -2.44%K -6.95%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-08 19:39
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig2.57I 38.91%NM 38.07%1.58I 63.29%NM 61.93%2.2%2026-05-09 00:30