Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Stanford Cardinal v Fresno St Bulldogs

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 21:05 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Stanford Cardinal (Local)

Prediction 66.60%1.50fair odd
EV -4.76%
Edge -3.33%
Kelly -11.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.38%66.81%66.35%68.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.401.401.4373.53%71.49%71.43%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Fresno St Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 33.40%2.99fair odd
EV -1.14%
Edge -0.384%
Kelly -0.580%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.80%33.19%33.65%34.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.802.772.9637.04%35.67%36.04%33.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Stanford Cardinal (Local): 66.60%; Fresno St Bulldogs (Visit): 33.40%. For Fresno St Bulldogs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.99. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.96, with an expected value of -1.14%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -4.76%E -3.33%K -11.07%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -6.48%E -2.31%K -3.60%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-01 20:59
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -4.76%E -3.33%K -11.07%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -8.15%E -2.96%K -4.66%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-01 18:59
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -4.76%E -3.33%K -11.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -9.82%E -3.64%K -5.78%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 20:23
LowVig.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.43%EV -5.43%E -3.82%K -12.92%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.57%EV -6.15%E -2.19%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-01 18:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.43%EV -5.43%E -3.82%K -12.92%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 33.57%EV -6.15%E -2.19%K -3.40%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-01 18:15
BetUS🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -5.43%E -3.82%K -12.92%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -8.15%E -2.96%K -4.66%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-01 18:19
theScore Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -6.76%E -4.83%K -16.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -3.14%E -1.08%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-01 17:54
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.76%E -4.83%K -16.90%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.15%E -2.96%K -4.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-01 04:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.76%E -4.83%K -16.90%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.15%E -2.96%K -4.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-01 04:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.76%E -4.83%K -16.90%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.15%E -2.96%K -4.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-01 04:40
Betway🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -6.76%E -4.83%K -16.90%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -8.15%E -2.96%K -4.66%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-01 13:29
FanDuel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.20%EV -8.09%E -5.86%K -21.29%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.80%EV -1.14%E -0.384%K -0.580%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-01 17:54
1xBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.59%EV -8.76%E -6.39%K -23.67%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 33.41%EV -8.82%E -3.23%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-01 20:44
BetRivers🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -9.42%E -6.93%K -26.18%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -3.81%E -1.32%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-01 17:54
Bally Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -9.42%E -6.93%K -26.18%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -3.81%E -1.32%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-01 17:54
betPARX🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -9.42%E -6.93%K -26.18%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -3.81%E -1.32%K -2.03%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-01 17:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.