Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Southern Miss Golden Eagles v Virginia Cavaliers

Kickoff: 2026-05-30 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Local)

Prediction 64.20%1.56fair odd
EV -1.13%
Edge -0.736%
Kelly -2.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.21%63.91%64.11%65.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.471.451.5470.42%68.08%68.97%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Virginia Cavaliers (Visit)

Prediction 35.80%2.79fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -1.24%
Kelly -1.96%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.89%36.09%35.89%38.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.432.602.622.7041.15%38.53%38.17%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Local): 64.20%; Virginia Cavaliers (Visit): 35.80%. For Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.56. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.54, with an expected value of -1.13%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetUS🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -1.13%E -0.736%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -13.00%E -5.35%K -9.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-30 17:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -1.13%E -0.736%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -13.00%E -5.35%K -9.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-30 17:20
BetOnline.ag🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.21%EV -1.13%E -0.736%K -2.10%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.79%EV -13.00%E -5.35%K -9.09%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-30 17:30
Caesars🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -3.70%E -2.47%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -5.13%E -1.94%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-30 17:24
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -3.70%E -2.47%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -10.50%E -4.20%K -7.00%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-30 14:09
Pinnacle🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -4.34%E -2.91%K -8.86%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -5.84%E -2.22%K -3.59%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-30 15:30
MyBookie.ag🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.81%EV -4.99%E -3.37%K -10.39%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.19%EV -6.56%E -2.51%K -4.07%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-30 15:59
DraftKings🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.99%E -3.37%K -10.39%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.92%E -2.66%K -4.32%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-30 14:49
theScore Bet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.91%E -4.77%K -15.36%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -3.34%E -1.24%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-30 16:09
FanDuel🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.89%EV -6.91%E -4.77%K -15.36%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.11%EV -4.05%E -1.51%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-30 16:09
Bovada🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -6.91%E -4.77%K -15.36%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -5.13%E -1.94%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-30 16:48
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.55%E -5.25%K -17.17%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.20%E -2.37%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-30 14:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.55%E -5.25%K -17.17%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.20%E -2.37%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-30 14:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.55%E -5.25%K -17.17%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -6.20%E -2.37%K -3.83%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-30 14:20
Betway🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -7.55%E -5.25%K -17.17%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.92%E -2.66%K -4.32%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-30 14:00
BetRivers🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -8.84%E -6.22%K -21.04%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -5.13%E -1.94%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-30 15:59
betPARX🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -8.84%E -6.22%K -21.04%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -5.13%E -1.94%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-30 16:00
Bally Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -8.84%E -6.22%K -21.04%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -5.13%E -1.94%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-30 16:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%5.5%2026-05-30 17:50