Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Southern Miss Golden Eagles v Virginia Cavaliers

Kickoff: 2026-05-30 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Local)

Prediction 63.27%1.58fair odd
EV -0.663%
Edge -0.422%
Kelly -1.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.95%63.33%63.36%68.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.471.481.5772.46%67.81%67.57%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Virginia Cavaliers (Visit)

Prediction 36.73%2.72fair odd
EV +8.35%
Edge +2.83%
Kelly +4.28%
Growth +0.357%

assuming max odds 2.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.87%36.67%36.64%40.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.612.622.9542.55%38.32%38.17%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Local): 63.27%; Virginia Cavaliers (Visit): 36.73%. For Virginia Cavaliers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.72. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.35%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -12.68%E -9.19%K -33.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV +8.35%E +2.83%K +4.28%G +0.357%6.4%2026-05-30 13:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -12.68%E -9.19%K -33.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV +8.35%E +2.83%K +4.28%G +0.357%6.4%2026-05-30 13:10
BetUS🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.53%EV -12.68%E -9.19%K -33.38%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.47%EV +5.41%E +1.88%K +2.89%G +0.156%7.3%2026-05-30 13:30
Pinnacle🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.34%EV -6.36%E -4.30%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.67I 37.45%NM 35.66%EV -1.94%E -0.725%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-30 13:40
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.90%EV -6.36%E -4.30%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.10%EV -3.77%E -1.44%K -2.33%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-30 12:28
888sport🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.89%E -6.17%K -20.20%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -3.77%E -1.44%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-30 13:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.89%E -6.17%K -20.20%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -3.77%E -1.44%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-30 13:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.89%E -6.17%K -20.20%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -3.77%E -1.44%K -2.33%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-30 13:00
1xBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.46%E -2.95%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -4.51%E -1.73%K -2.82%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-30 13:39
MyBookie.ag🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.53%EV -4.46%E -2.95%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.47%EV -7.45%E -2.95%K -4.90%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-30 12:20
theScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -3.19%E -2.09%K -6.03%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -8.18%E -3.27%K -5.45%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-30 12:09
Betway🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.36%E -4.30%K -13.24%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.18%E -3.27%K -5.45%G +0.000%7.6%2026-05-30 12:10
BetMGM🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -2.56%E -1.66%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -11.85%E -4.94%K -8.47%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-30 12:50
DraftKings🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -0.663%E -0.422%K -1.16%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -13.69%E -5.83%K -10.14%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-30 02:50
Bovada🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -1.30%E -0.830%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -13.69%E -5.83%K -10.14%G +0.000%6.7%2026-05-30 04:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%5.8%2026-05-30 12:20