Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Southern Miss Golden Eagles v Troy Trojans

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 19:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

70%

30%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Local)

Prediction 69.84%1.43fair odd

EV -2.92%

Edge -2.10%

Kelly -7.49%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

67.06%69.80%69.84%71.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.301.351.361.3976.92%74.14%73.53%71.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Troy Trojans (Visit)

Prediction 30.16%3.32fair odd

EV -1.98%

Edge -0.610%

Kelly -0.881%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

28.88%30.20%30.16%32.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.833.073.053.2535.34%32.57%32.79%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Local): 69.84%; Troy Trojans (Visit): 30.16%. For Troy Trojans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.32. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.25, with an expected value of -1.98%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetUS🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 67.06%EV -2.92%E -2.10%K -7.49%G +0.000%	2.83I 35.34%NM 32.94%EV -14.65%E -5.18%K -8.00%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-05-23 18:29
Caesars🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.62%E -2.62%K -9.53%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -6.51%E -2.10%K -3.10%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-23 18:40
LowVig.ag🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.42%EV -3.62%E -2.62%K -9.53%G +0.000%	2.99I 33.44%NM 31.58%EV -9.82%E -3.29%K -4.94%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-05-23 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.42%EV -3.62%E -2.62%K -9.53%G +0.000%	2.99I 33.44%NM 31.58%EV -9.82%E -3.29%K -4.94%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-05-23 18:49
DraftKings🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -6.41%E -4.79%K -18.86%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -3.49%E -1.09%K -1.59%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-05-23 18:30
Bovada🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -7.81%E -5.92%K -24.41%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -1.98%E -0.610%K -0.881%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-23 18:58
Betway🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -9.21%E -7.08%K -30.69%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -3.49%E -1.09%K -1.59%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-23 19:09
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -9.21%E -7.08%K -30.69%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.23%EV -9.52%E -3.17%K -4.76%G +0.000%	10.3%	2026-05-23 19:09

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.