The School of College Oddsodds.college
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Southern Miss Golden Eagles v Texas State Bobcats

Kickoff: 2026-04-17 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Local)

Prediction 66.25%1.51fair odd
EV -5.26%
Edge -3.68%
Kelly -12.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.38%66.46%66.31%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.381.411.421.4372.46%70.72%70.42%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Texas State Bobcats (Visit)

Prediction 33.75%2.96fair odd
EV +1.25%
Edge +0.418%
Kelly +0.627%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.51%33.54%33.69%34.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.782.753.0037.04%36.02%36.36%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Local): 66.25%; Texas State Bobcats (Visit): 33.75%. For Texas State Bobcats (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.96. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.25%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -8.58%E -6.22%K -22.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV +1.25%E +0.418%K +0.627%G +0.008%5.8%2026-04-17 21:10
Caesars🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -5.26%E -3.68%K -12.24%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -3.81%E -1.34%K -2.06%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-17 20:38
theScore Bet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -5.93%E -4.17%K -14.11%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.50%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-17 11:49
BetRivers🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.25%E -5.18%K -18.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.50%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-17 20:54
betPARX🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.25%E -5.18%K -18.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.50%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-17 20:50
Bally Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.25%E -5.18%K -18.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.50%E -1.96%K -3.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-17 20:55
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.26%E -3.68%K -12.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -7.18%E -2.61%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-17 03:57
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.26%E -3.68%K -12.24%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -7.18%E -2.61%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-17 12:29
Bovada🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -5.93%E -4.17%K -14.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -7.18%E -2.61%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-17 04:50
MyBookie.ag🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -5.93%E -4.17%K -14.11%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -7.18%E -2.61%K -4.10%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-17 22:15
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.25%E -5.18%K -18.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.18%E -2.61%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-17 17:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.25%E -5.18%K -18.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.18%E -2.61%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-17 17:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.25%E -5.18%K -18.13%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -7.18%E -2.61%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-17 17:49
LowVig.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.71%EV -5.26%E -3.68%K -12.24%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.29%EV -7.52%E -2.74%K -4.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-17 17:04
BetOnline.ag🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.71%EV -5.26%E -3.68%K -12.24%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.29%EV -7.52%E -2.74%K -4.32%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-17 17:04
1xBet🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.70%EV -5.93%E -4.17%K -14.11%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 34.30%EV -8.20%E -3.01%K -4.77%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-17 18:25
BetUS🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -5.26%E -3.68%K -12.24%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -8.87%E -3.29%K -5.22%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-17 17:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.40I 71.43%NM 66.02%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.98%8.2%2026-04-17 22:50