Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Southern Miss Golden Eagles v Mississippi St Bulldogs

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

44%

56%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Local)

Prediction 44.29%2.26fair odd

EV +6.29%

Edge +2.62%

Kelly +4.49%

Growth +0.283%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.39%43.77%44.30%45.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.072.152.102.4048.31%46.47%47.62%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mississippi St Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 55.71%1.79fair odd

EV -4.73%

Edge -2.77%

Kelly -6.66%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

54.76%56.23%55.70%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.561.651.671.7164.10%60.43%59.88%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Local): 44.29%; Mississippi St Bulldogs (Visit): 55.71%. For Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.26. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.29%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetUS🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV +6.29%E +2.62%K +4.49%G +0.283%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -13.09%E -8.39%K -23.37%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-03 23:05
LowVig.ag🎯	2.39I 41.84%NM 39.49%EV +5.85%E +2.45%K +4.21%G +0.246%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%EV -13.09%E -8.39%K -23.37%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-03 23:04
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.39I 41.84%NM 39.49%EV +5.85%E +2.45%K +4.21%G +0.246%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.51%EV -13.09%E -8.39%K -23.37%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-03 23:04
BetMGM🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.96%E -4.17%K -10.39%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-03-03 16:35
Bovada🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.78%E -2.22%K -4.16%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.96%E -4.17%K -10.39%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-03-03 22:40
FanDuel🎯	2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -6.11%E -2.88%K -5.46%G +0.000%	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -5.29%E -3.11%K -7.56%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-03-03 21:30
DraftKings🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.00%E -3.33%K -6.36%G +0.000%	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.73%E -2.77%K -6.66%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-03 16:43
Hard Rock Bet🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.00%E -3.33%K -6.36%G +0.000%	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.73%E -2.77%K -6.66%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-03 18:05
theScore Bet🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.00%E -3.33%K -6.36%G +0.000%	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.73%E -2.77%K -6.66%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-03 21:30
888sport🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.00%E -3.33%K -6.36%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.96%E -4.17%K -10.39%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-03-03 21:30
888sport (SE)🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.00%E -3.33%K -6.36%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.96%E -4.17%K -10.39%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-03-03 21:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.00%E -3.33%K -6.36%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.96%E -4.17%K -10.39%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-03-03 21:30
Betway🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.00%E -3.33%K -6.36%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.96%E -4.17%K -10.39%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-03-03 21:30
1xBet🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 45.24%EV -8.32%E -4.02%K -7.78%G +0.000%	1.71I 58.48%NM 54.76%EV -4.73%E -2.77%K -6.66%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-03 21:55
BetRivers🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 44.05%EV -8.32%E -4.02%K -7.78%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 55.95%EV -9.19%E -5.64%K -14.59%G +0.000%	9.7%	2026-03-03 21:30
betPARX🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 44.05%EV -8.32%E -4.02%K -7.78%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 55.95%EV -9.19%E -5.64%K -14.59%G +0.000%	9.7%	2026-03-03 21:30
Bally Bet🎯	2.07I 48.31%NM 44.05%EV -8.32%E -4.02%K -7.78%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 55.95%EV -9.19%E -5.64%K -14.59%G +0.000%	9.7%	2026-03-03 21:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.