Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Southern Miss Golden Eagles v Appalachian St Mountaineers

Kickoff: 2026-03-27 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Local)

Prediction 83.57%1.20fair odd
EV -3.06%
Edge -2.64%
Kelly -19.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
80.37%83.26%83.45%84.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.111.131.121.1690.09%88.40%89.29%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Appalachian St Mountaineers (Visit)

Prediction 16.43%6.08fair odd
EV -0.570%
Edge -0.094%
Kelly -0.113%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.50%16.74%16.55%19.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.755.585.706.0521.05%17.92%17.54%16.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Southern Miss Golden Eagles (Local): 83.57%; Appalachian St Mountaineers (Visit): 16.43%. For Appalachian St Mountaineers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.08. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 6.05, with an expected value of -0.570%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -3.06%E -2.64%K -19.15%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -21.93%E -4.62%K -5.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-27 15:40
betPARX🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -3.06%E -2.64%K -19.15%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -21.93%E -4.62%K -5.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-27 15:40
Bally Bet🎯1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -3.06%E -2.64%K -19.15%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -21.93%E -4.62%K -5.85%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-27 15:39
Caesars🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.74%E -4.15%K -33.83%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -5.50%E -0.957%K -1.16%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-27 15:45
888sport🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.74%E -4.15%K -33.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -9.61%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-27 15:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.74%E -4.15%K -33.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -9.61%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-27 15:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -4.74%E -4.15%K -33.83%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -9.61%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-27 15:49
FanDuel🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.46%EV -5.57%E -4.93%K -42.86%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.54%EV -6.32%E -1.11%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-27 17:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.34%EV -6.41%E -5.72%K -53.39%G +0.000%6.03I 16.58%NM 15.66%EV -0.898%E -0.149%K -0.179%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-27 18:50
BetOnline.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.34%EV -6.41%E -5.72%K -53.39%G +0.000%6.03I 16.58%NM 15.66%EV -0.898%E -0.149%K -0.179%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-27 18:50
DraftKings🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.41%E -5.72%K -53.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -1.39%E -0.232%K -0.278%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-27 14:39
BetMGM🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.41%E -5.72%K -53.39%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -1.39%E -0.232%K -0.278%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-27 16:20
BetUS🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.82%EV -6.41%E -5.72%K -53.39%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.18%EV -4.68%E -0.807%K -0.975%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-27 18:50
theScore Bet🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.41%E -5.72%K -53.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -9.61%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-27 16:24
MyBookie.ag🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -6.41%E -5.72%K -53.39%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV -9.61%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-27 15:15
1xBet🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 84.50%EV -7.24%E -6.52%K -65.84%G +0.000%6.05I 16.53%NM 15.50%EV -0.570%E -0.094%K -0.113%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-27 17:05
Bovada🎯1.11I 90.09%NM 83.82%EV -7.24%E -6.52%K -65.84%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.18%EV -5.50%E -0.957%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-27 16:23
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.00I 100.00%NM 86.13%6.21I 16.10%NM 13.87%16.1%2026-03-27 22:05