Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Florida Bulls v Jacksonville Dolphins

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Florida Bulls (Local)

Prediction 71.05%1.41fair odd
EV -4.08%
Edge -3.02%
Kelly -11.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.18%70.97%71.11%71.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.321.321.3576.92%75.80%75.76%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jacksonville Dolphins (Visit)

Prediction 28.95%3.45fair odd
EV -1.57%
Edge -0.462%
Kelly -0.655%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.12%29.03%28.89%30.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.033.203.203.4033.00%31.26%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Florida Bulls (Local): 71.05%; Jacksonville Dolphins (Visit): 28.95%. For Jacksonville Dolphins (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.45. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.40, with an expected value of -1.57%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -4.08%E -3.02%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -10.26%E -3.31%K -4.88%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-16 22:40
1xBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 69.18%EV -4.08%E -3.02%K -11.66%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 30.82%EV -12.28%E -4.05%K -6.05%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-17 15:35
FanDuel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.79%E -3.58%K -14.10%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-17 17:34
Caesars🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.50%E -4.14%K -16.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -1.57%E -0.462%K -0.655%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-17 16:15
DraftKings🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -6.21%E -4.71%K -19.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-17 17:29
theScore Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -6.21%E -4.71%K -19.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -5.91%E -1.82%K -2.63%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-17 17:34
MyBookie.ag🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.54%EV -6.21%E -4.71%K -19.42%G +0.000%3.16I 31.65%NM 29.46%EV -8.52%E -2.70%K -3.94%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-17 17:34
Bovada🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -6.92%E -5.29%K -22.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -4.47%E -1.35%K -1.94%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-17 17:35
Fliff🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 69.95%EV -6.92%E -5.29%K -22.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.05%EV -11.70%E -3.84%K -5.71%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-17 16:05
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.63%E -5.87%K -25.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-17 17:30
betPARX🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.63%E -5.87%K -25.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-17 16:00
Bally Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.63%E -5.87%K -25.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-17 16:00
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.63%E -5.87%K -25.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -7.36%E -2.30%K -3.35%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-17 16:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.30I 76.92%NM 73.03%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.97%5.3%2026-03-17 18:30