Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Alabama Jaguars v Troy Trojans

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 14:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Alabama Jaguars (Local)

Prediction 47.92%2.09fair odd
EV -0.798%
Edge -0.385%
Kelly -0.746%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.80%47.56%48.00%48.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.911.971.952.0752.36%50.64%51.28%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Troy Trojans (Visit)

Prediction 52.08%1.92fair odd
EV -4.70%
Edge -2.57%
Kelly -5.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.48%52.44%52.00%55.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.781.801.8359.52%56.29%55.56%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Alabama Jaguars (Local): 47.92%; Troy Trojans (Visit): 52.08%. For South Alabama Jaguars (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.09. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.07, with an expected value of -0.798%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.80%EV -0.798%E -0.385%K -0.746%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.20%EV -12.51%E -7.45%K -18.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-23 13:19
betPARX🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.80%EV -0.798%E -0.385%K -0.746%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.20%EV -12.51%E -7.45%K -18.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-23 13:19
Bally Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.80%EV -0.798%E -0.385%K -0.746%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.20%EV -12.51%E -7.45%K -18.40%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-23 13:19
1xBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.91%EV -4.63%E -2.33%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.09%EV -4.70%E -2.57%K -5.66%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-23 13:20
FanDuel🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -5.11%E -2.58%K -5.22%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -6.26%E -3.48%K -7.83%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-23 13:40
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.55%E -3.36%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.26%E -3.48%K -7.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-23 12:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.55%E -3.36%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.26%E -3.48%K -7.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-23 12:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.55%E -3.36%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.26%E -3.48%K -7.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-23 12:49
BetMGM🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.55%E -3.36%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.26%E -3.48%K -7.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-23 12:49
Bovada🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.55%E -3.36%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.26%E -3.48%K -7.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-23 13:07
BetUS🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.55%E -3.36%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.26%E -3.48%K -7.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-23 13:09
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.55%E -3.36%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.26%E -3.48%K -7.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-23 13:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -6.55%E -3.36%K -6.89%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -6.26%E -3.48%K -7.83%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-23 13:48
MyBookie.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -7.51%E -3.89%K -8.07%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%EV -7.30%E -4.10%K -9.36%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-23 12:49
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.47%E -4.43%K -9.30%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.26%E -3.48%K -7.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-23 12:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.96I 51.02%NM 33.78%1.00I 100.00%NM 66.22%51.0%2026-05-23 13:39