Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Alabama Jaguars v Arkansas St Red Wolves

Kickoff: 2026-05-15 23:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

53%

47%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Alabama Jaguars (Local)

Prediction 52.95%1.89fair odd

EV -4.69%

Edge -2.61%

Kelly -5.87%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

52.38%52.83%52.95%53.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.741.771.771.8057.47%56.45%56.50%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arkansas St Red Wolves (Visit)

Prediction 47.05%2.13fair odd

EV -3.07%

Edge -1.49%

Kelly -2.90%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

46.35%47.17%47.05%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.952.002.002.0651.28%50.04%50.00%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Alabama Jaguars (Local): 52.95%; Arkansas St Red Wolves (Visit): 47.05%. For Arkansas St Red Wolves (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.06, with an expected value of -3.07%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.38%EV -4.69%E -2.61%K -5.87%G +0.000%	1.98I 50.51%NM 47.62%EV -6.84%E -3.45%K -6.98%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-15 16:59
1xBet🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 53.65%EV -5.75%E -3.23%K -7.38%G +0.000%	2.06I 48.54%NM 46.35%EV -3.07%E -1.49%K -2.90%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-15 16:35
DraftKings🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.28%E -3.55%K -8.16%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.90%E -2.95%K -5.90%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-15 04:08
theScore Bet🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.28%E -3.55%K -8.16%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.90%E -2.95%K -5.90%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-15 04:19
Bovada🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.28%E -3.55%K -8.16%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.90%E -2.95%K -5.90%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-15 05:43
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -6.28%E -3.55%K -8.16%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.90%E -2.95%K -5.90%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-05-15 17:35
Betway🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 52.85%EV -7.87%E -4.52%K -10.64%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.15%EV -8.25%E -4.23%K -8.68%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-05-15 22:35

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.