Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Francisco Dons v California Golden Bears

Kickoff: 2026-04-06 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Francisco Dons (Local)

Prediction 29.08%3.44fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.330%
Kelly -0.467%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.12%29.20%28.96%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.183.203.4033.33%31.43%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

California Golden Bears (Visit)

Prediction 70.92%1.41fair odd
EV -3.55%
Edge -2.61%
Kelly -9.86%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.81%70.80%71.04%71.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.331.331.3676.92%75.11%75.19%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Francisco Dons (Local): 29.08%; California Golden Bears (Visit): 70.92%. For San Francisco Dons (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.44. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.40, with an expected value of -1.12%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -1.12%E -0.330%K -0.467%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.68%E -4.27%K -17.21%G +0.000%4.6%2026-04-06 16:44
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -4.03%E -1.22%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -6.39%E -4.84%K -19.96%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-06 20:35
BetMGM🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -5.48%E -1.69%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.68%E -4.27%K -17.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-06 15:54
Bovada🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -5.48%E -1.69%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -6.39%E -4.84%K -19.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-06 17:14
theScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -5.48%E -1.69%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -6.39%E -4.84%K -19.96%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-06 20:25
1xBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -5.48%E -1.69%K -2.44%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27%EV -7.10%E -5.42%K -22.89%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-06 20:49
DraftKings🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -6.94%E -2.17%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -4.97%E -3.71%K -14.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-06 17:10
Betway🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -6.94%E -2.17%K -3.15%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -7.81%E -6.00%K -26.02%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-06 17:24
MyBookie.ag🎯3.14I 31.85%NM 29.75%EV -8.68%E -2.77%K -4.06%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.25%EV -5.68%E -4.27%K -17.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-06 20:40
BetRivers🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -9.85%E -3.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.68%E -4.27%K -17.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-06 20:20
betPARX🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -9.85%E -3.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.68%E -4.27%K -17.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-06 20:20
Bally Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -9.85%E -3.18%K -4.69%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.68%E -4.27%K -17.21%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-06 20:20
LowVig.ag🎯3.09I 32.36%NM 30.56%EV -10.14%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.44%EV -3.55%E -2.61%K -9.86%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-06 11:40
BetOnline.ag🎯3.09I 32.36%NM 30.56%EV -10.14%E -3.28%K -4.85%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.44%EV -3.55%E -2.61%K -9.86%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-06 11:45
BetUS🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -12.75%E -4.25%K -6.38%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -3.55%E -2.61%K -9.86%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-06 12:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig3.29I 30.40%NM 28.79%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.21%5.6%2026-04-06 20:25