Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Diego Toreros v Michigan Wolverines

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Diego Toreros (Local)

Prediction 44.46%2.25fair odd
EV +4.47%
Edge +1.90%
Kelly +3.31%
Growth +0.148%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.90%44.63%44.27%46.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.102.102.3551.55%47.55%47.62%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Michigan Wolverines (Visit)

Prediction 55.54%1.80fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -2.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.30%55.37%55.73%60.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.681.691.7664.10%59.52%59.35%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Diego Toreros (Local): 44.46%; Michigan Wolverines (Visit): 55.54%. For San Diego Toreros (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.25. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.47%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bovada🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV +4.47%E +1.90%K +3.31%G +0.148%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -13.35%E -8.56%K -23.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-01 20:23
theScore Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.42%E -2.06%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -6.13%E -3.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-01 18:59
BetUS🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -4.42%E -2.06%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -6.13%E -3.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-01 18:19
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.42%E -2.06%K -3.84%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.24%E -4.34%K -10.81%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-01 20:39
DraftKings🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 44.13%EV -4.86%E -2.27%K -4.27%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.87%EV -6.13%E -3.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-01 19:34
LowVig.ag🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.24%EV -5.31%E -2.49%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.76%EV -6.13%E -3.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-01 18:14
BetOnline.ag🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 44.24%EV -5.31%E -2.49%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.76%EV -6.13%E -3.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-01 18:15
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.64%E -3.16%K -6.04%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.24%E -4.34%K -10.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-01 20:54
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.64%E -3.16%K -6.04%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.24%E -4.34%K -10.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-01 20:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.64%E -3.16%K -6.04%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.24%E -4.34%K -10.81%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-01 20:54
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.19%EV -8.86%E -4.32%K -8.44%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -6.13%E -3.63%K -8.89%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-01 20:44
FanDuel🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -9.31%E -4.56%K -8.95%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -2.24%E -1.27%K -2.95%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-01 20:45
BetRivers🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.16%EV -9.31%E -4.56%K -8.95%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.84%EV -6.69%E -3.98%K -9.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-01 17:44
betPARX🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.16%EV -9.31%E -4.56%K -8.95%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.84%EV -6.69%E -3.98%K -9.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-01 17:44
Bally Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.16%EV -9.31%E -4.56%K -8.95%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.84%EV -6.69%E -3.98%K -9.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-01 17:44
1xBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.70%EV -13.76%E -7.09%K -14.63%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.30%EV -5.58%E -3.28%K -7.96%G +0.000%10.4%2026-03-01 16:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.