Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Diego St Aztecs v Air Force Falcons

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

57%

43%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Diego St Aztecs (Local)

Prediction 56.94%1.76fair odd

EV -4.91%

Edge -2.94%

Kelly -7.33%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.94%57.39%56.94%60.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.541.631.641.6764.94%61.39%60.98%59.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Air Force Falcons (Visit)

Prediction 43.06%2.32fair odd

EV +3.35%

Edge +1.39%

Kelly +2.39%

Growth +0.080%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.09%42.61%43.06%44.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.122.202.152.4047.17%45.48%46.51%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Diego St Aztecs (Local): 56.94%; Air Force Falcons (Visit): 43.06%. For Air Force Falcons (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.32. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.35%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Bovada🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -12.31%E -8.00%K -22.81%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV +3.35%E +1.39%K +2.39%G +0.080%	6.6%	2026-04-04 19:24
DraftKings🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -8.90%E -5.56%K -14.83%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -0.958%E -0.417%K -0.737%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-04-04 19:24
theScore Bet🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.91%E -2.94%K -7.33%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.26%E -2.39%K -4.39%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-04-04 19:40
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -6.62%E -4.04%K -10.35%G +0.000%	2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -6.56%E -3.02%K -5.60%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-04-04 19:44
BetRivers🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -6.62%E -4.04%K -10.35%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-04-04 13:39
Bally Bet🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -6.62%E -4.04%K -10.35%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-04-04 13:39
betPARX🎯	1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -6.62%E -4.04%K -10.35%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-04-04 13:39
Betway🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -7.76%E -4.79%K -12.52%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -7.42%E -3.45%K -6.45%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-04-04 14:34
1xBet🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -4.91%E -2.94%K -7.33%G +0.000%	2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -8.71%E -4.11%K -7.78%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-04-04 13:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.58%	2.24I 44.64%NM 42.42%	5.2%	2026-04-04 19:39