Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Samford Bulldogs v Mercer Bears

Kickoff: 2026-05-02 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

43%

57%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Samford Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 43.21%2.31fair odd

EV -0.621%

Edge -0.270%

Kelly -0.478%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

40.87%43.21%43.72%44.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.102.222.242.3047.62%45.05%44.74%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mercer Bears (Visit)

Prediction 56.79%1.76fair odd

EV -2.89%

Edge -1.69%

Kelly -4.06%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.12%56.79%56.28%59.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.591.631.601.7162.89%61.35%62.31%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Samford Bulldogs (Local): 43.21%; Mercer Bears (Visit): 56.79%. For Samford Bulldogs (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.31. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.30, with an expected value of -0.621%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -0.621%E -0.270%K -0.478%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -9.13%E -5.71%K -15.22%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-02 13:00
Bovada🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -0.621%E -0.270%K -0.478%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -9.70%E -6.10%K -16.44%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-02 12:59
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -2.78%E -1.24%K -2.23%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -9.13%E -5.71%K -15.22%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-02 17:43
1xBet🎯	2.22I 45.05%NM 42.04%EV -4.08%E -1.84%K -3.34%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.96%EV -8.57%E -5.32%K -14.04%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-05-02 19:38
BetMGM🎯	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -7.10%E -3.30%K -6.18%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.16%E -3.09%K -7.70%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-02 17:34
theScore Bet🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -9.26%E -4.41%K -8.42%G +0.000%	1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -2.89%E -1.69%K -4.06%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-02 15:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	2.26I 44.25%NM 41.60%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.40%	6.4%	2026-05-02 20:50