Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sam Houston St Bearkats v Dallas Baptist Patriots

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

6 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

24%

76%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Sam Houston St Bearkats (Local)

Prediction 23.91%4.18fair odd

EV +5.92%

Edge +1.34%

Kelly +1.73%

Growth +0.102%

assuming max odds 4.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.17%23.91%24.75%24.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.804.003.904.4326.32%24.97%25.64%22.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dallas Baptist Patriots (Visit)

Prediction 76.09%1.31fair odd

EV -4.89%

Edge -3.91%

Kelly -19.55%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

75.25%76.09%75.25%78.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.191.221.231.2584.03%81.63%81.30%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Sam Houston St Bearkats (Local): 23.91%; Dallas Baptist Patriots (Visit): 76.09%. For Sam Houston St Bearkats (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.18. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.43, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.92%.

Sportsbook Odds (6 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	4.43I 22.57%NM 21.17%EV +5.92%E +1.34%K +1.73%G +0.102%	1.19I 84.03%NM 78.83%EV -9.45%E -7.94%K -49.75%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-04-11 15:35
theScore Bet🎯	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV +0.418%E +0.100%K +0.131%G +0.001%	1.20I 83.33%NM 77.78%EV -8.69%E -7.24%K -43.45%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-04-11 15:25
MyBookie.ag🎯	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -4.36%E -1.09%K -1.45%G +0.000%	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.17%E -5.88%K -32.59%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-04-11 15:25
DraftKings🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -9.15%E -2.41%K -3.27%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.89%E -3.91%K -19.55%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-04-11 02:45
BetMGM🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -9.15%E -2.41%K -3.27%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.89%E -3.91%K -19.55%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-04-11 04:14
Bovada🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -9.15%E -2.41%K -3.27%G +0.000%	1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.65%E -4.55%K -23.53%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-04-11 13:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	3.83I 26.11%NM 20.70%	1.00I 100.00%NM 79.30%	26.1%	2026-04-11 18:50