Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Richmond Spiders v Maryland Terrapins

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

37%

63%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Richmond Spiders (Local)

Prediction 37.37%2.68fair odd

EV -0.974%

Edge -0.368%

Kelly -0.591%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

35.37%37.21%37.47%38.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.402.512.502.6541.67%39.79%40.00%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Maryland Terrapins (Visit)

Prediction 62.63%1.60fair odd

EV -4.17%

Edge -2.73%

Kelly -7.87%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

61.52%62.79%62.53%64.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.451.491.481.5368.97%67.01%67.57%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Richmond Spiders (Local): 37.37%; Maryland Terrapins (Visit): 62.63%. For Richmond Spiders (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.68. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.65, with an expected value of -0.974%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -0.974%E -0.368%K -0.591%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -7.93%E -5.40%K -16.87%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-17 17:40
Bovada🎯	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -0.974%E -0.368%K -0.591%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -9.18%E -6.33%K -20.41%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-03-17 17:40
Caesars🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.71%E -1.85%K -3.04%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.17%E -2.73%K -7.87%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-03-17 16:02
FanDuel🎯	2.52I 39.68%NM 37.47%EV -5.83%E -2.31%K -3.84%G +0.000%	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.53%EV -5.43%E -3.59%K -10.64%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-17 09:49
theScore Bet🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.58%E -2.63%K -4.39%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.17%E -2.73%K -7.87%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-03-16 22:40
BetMGM🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.58%E -2.63%K -4.39%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.10%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-03-16 22:35
Betway🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.58%E -2.63%K -4.39%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.30%E -4.94%K -15.22%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-17 17:55
betPARX🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.58%E -2.63%K -4.39%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.30%E -4.94%K -15.22%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-17 17:55
Bally Bet🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.58%E -2.63%K -4.39%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.30%E -4.94%K -15.22%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-17 17:55
BetRivers🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.58%E -2.63%K -4.39%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.30%E -4.94%K -15.22%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-17 17:55
MyBookie.ag🎯	2.47I 40.49%NM 37.78%EV -7.70%E -3.12%K -5.24%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -6.05%E -4.03%K -12.10%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-03-17 12:59
1xBet🎯	2.43I 41.15%NM 38.48%EV -9.20%E -3.78%K -6.43%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 61.52%EV -4.80%E -3.16%K -9.23%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-17 10:15
Fliff🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 37.98%EV -10.32%E -4.30%K -7.37%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 62.02%EV -7.93%E -5.40%K -16.87%G +0.000%	9.7%	2026-03-17 17:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%	5.1%	2026-03-17 17:40