Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Purdue Boilermakers v Oregon Ducks

Kickoff: 2026-03-08 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Purdue Boilermakers (Local)

Prediction 29.18%3.43fair odd
EV +5.06%
Edge +1.41%
Kelly +1.95%
Growth +0.098%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.23%29.03%29.36%31.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.223.103.6033.33%31.02%32.26%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Oregon Ducks (Visit)

Prediction 70.82%1.41fair odd
EV -4.40%
Edge -3.26%
Kelly -12.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.97%70.97%70.64%73.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.321.331.3578.13%75.64%75.19%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Purdue Boilermakers (Local): 29.18%; Oregon Ducks (Visit): 70.82%. For Purdue Boilermakers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.43. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.06%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV +5.06%E +1.41%K +1.95%G +0.098%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -9.35%E -7.31%K -33.41%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-08 15:49
BetOnline.ag🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV +5.06%E +1.41%K +1.95%G +0.098%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -9.35%E -7.31%K -33.41%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-08 15:49
DraftKings🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV +2.14%E +0.612%K +0.856%G +0.018%1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -8.65%E -6.70%K -29.81%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-08 15:54
BetUS🎯3.48I 28.74%NM 26.89%EV +1.56%E +0.447%K +0.628%G +0.010%1.28I 78.13%NM 73.11%EV -9.35%E -7.31%K -33.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-08 15:49
Bovada🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -2.24%E -0.668%K -0.952%G +0.000%1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -7.94%E -6.11%K -26.46%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-08 15:53
FanDuel🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -3.70%E -1.12%K -1.61%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -6.52%E -4.94%K -20.38%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-08 15:54
theScore Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -6.61%E -2.07%K -3.01%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.81%E -4.37%K -17.62%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-08 15:40
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -9.53%E -3.07%K -4.54%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -4.40%E -3.26%K -12.56%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-08 14:14
MyBookie.ag🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -9.53%E -3.07%K -4.54%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -5.11%E -3.81%K -15.02%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-08 15:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -9.53%E -3.07%K -4.54%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -5.81%E -4.37%K -17.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-08 15:54
1xBet🎯3.03I 33.00%NM 30.82%EV -11.58%E -3.82%K -5.70%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.18%EV -4.40%E -3.26%K -12.56%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 14:34
BetRivers🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -12.45%E -4.15%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -4.40%E -3.26%K -12.56%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-08 15:54
betPARX🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -12.45%E -4.15%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -4.40%E -3.26%K -12.56%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-08 15:55
Bally Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -12.45%E -4.15%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -4.40%E -3.26%K -12.56%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-08 15:55
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -12.45%E -4.15%K -6.23%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.81%E -4.37%K -17.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-08 14:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig3.51I 28.49%NM 27.18%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.82%4.8%2026-03-08 15:54