Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Purdue Boilermakers v Ohio State Buckeyes

Kickoff: 2026-04-17 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Purdue Boilermakers (Local)

Prediction 68.75%1.45fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -1.68%
Kelly -5.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.35%68.65%68.18%70.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.371.371.4275.76%73.15%72.99%70.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ohio State Buckeyes (Visit)

Prediction 31.25%3.20fair odd
EV +0.013%
Edge +0.004%
Kelly +0.006%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.52%31.35%31.82%33.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.002.993.2035.71%33.29%33.44%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Purdue Boilermakers (Local): 68.75%; Ohio State Buckeyes (Visit): 31.25%. For Ohio State Buckeyes (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.1996. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.2000, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.013%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -7.88%E -5.88%K -23.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV +0.013%E +0.004%K +0.006%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-17 18:09
BetRivers🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -9.26%E -7.01%K -28.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -1.55%E -0.492%K -0.721%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-17 16:29
Bally Bet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -9.26%E -7.01%K -28.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -1.55%E -0.492%K -0.721%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-17 16:29
betPARX🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -9.26%E -7.01%K -28.92%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -1.55%E -0.492%K -0.721%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-17 16:29
theScore Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.51%E -4.78%K -18.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.11%E -1.00%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-17 18:14
Caesars🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -3.76%E -2.68%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -6.24%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-17 18:09
MyBookie.ag🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.51%E -4.78%K -18.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.24%E -2.08%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-17 18:19
1xBet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.66%EV -6.51%E -4.78%K -18.07%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.34%EV -6.86%E -2.30%K -3.47%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-17 18:14
LowVig.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.13%E -3.72%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -7.80%E -2.64%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-17 15:49
BetOnline.ag🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -5.13%E -3.72%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -7.80%E -2.64%K -4.00%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-17 15:49
BetMGM🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.76%E -2.68%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.36%E -3.23%K -4.93%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-17 15:54
BetUS🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.53%EV -5.13%E -3.72%K -13.50%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.47%EV -10.30%E -3.59%K -5.51%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-17 15:48
Bovada🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -3.76%E -2.68%K -9.39%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -10.93%E -3.83%K -5.91%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-17 15:55
DraftKings🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -2.38%E -1.68%K -5.67%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -12.49%E -4.46%K -6.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-17 15:44
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig1.40I 71.43%NM 68.47%3.04I 32.89%NM 31.53%4.3%2026-04-17 21:09