Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Purdue Boilermakers v Indiana Hoosiers

Kickoff: 2026-05-09 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

65%

35%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Purdue Boilermakers (Local)

Prediction 64.77%1.54fair odd

EV -3.50%

Edge -2.35%

Kelly -7.14%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.84%64.72%64.83%65.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.431.461.451.4969.93%68.65%68.97%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Indiana Hoosiers (Visit)

Prediction 35.23%2.84fair odd

EV -2.76%

Edge -0.999%

Kelly -1.57%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.13%35.28%35.17%37.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.522.632.602.7639.68%38.03%38.46%36.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Purdue Boilermakers (Local): 64.77%; Indiana Hoosiers (Visit): 35.23%. For Indiana Hoosiers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.84. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.76, with an expected value of -2.76%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.30%EV -3.50%E -2.35%K -7.14%G +0.000%	2.57I 38.91%NM 36.70%EV -9.45%E -3.68%K -6.02%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-09 16:35
LowVig.ag🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.30%EV -3.50%E -2.35%K -7.14%G +0.000%	2.57I 38.91%NM 36.70%EV -9.45%E -3.68%K -6.02%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-09 16:29
BetUS🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 62.84%EV -3.50%E -2.35%K -7.14%G +0.000%	2.52I 39.68%NM 37.16%EV -11.21%E -4.45%K -7.38%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-05-09 16:35
Caesars🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -4.14%E -2.80%K -8.63%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.87%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-05-09 16:34
1xBet🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 63.61%EV -4.79%E -3.26%K -10.20%G +0.000%	2.57I 38.91%NM 36.39%EV -9.45%E -3.68%K -6.02%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-05-09 16:20
BetMGM🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.53%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.87%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-09 15:39
theScore Bet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.53%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.87%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-09 15:50
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.53%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -6.63%E -2.50%K -4.02%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-09 15:48
BetRivers🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.53%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -10.16%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-09 15:39
Bally Bet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.53%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -10.16%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-09 15:39
betPARX🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -6.09%E -4.20%K -13.53%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -10.16%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-09 15:39
Betway🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -6.73%E -4.68%K -15.31%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -8.40%E -3.23%K -5.25%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-05-09 14:09
FanDuel🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.87%EV -7.38%E -5.16%K -17.17%G +0.000%	2.76I 36.23%NM 34.13%EV -2.76%E -0.999%K -1.57%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-09 15:44
DraftKings🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -7.38%E -5.16%K -17.17%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -3.11%E -1.13%K -1.78%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-05-09 14:09
Bovada🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -7.38%E -5.16%K -17.17%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -4.87%E -1.80%K -2.87%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-09 14:07

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.27%	2.81I 35.59%NM 33.73%	5.5%	2026-05-09 17:29