Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Purdue Boilermakers v Illinois Fighting Illini

Kickoff: 2026-04-05 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

54%

46%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Purdue Boilermakers (Local)

Prediction 53.76%1.86fair odd

EV -4.84%

Edge -2.73%

Kelly -6.28%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

52.69%53.90%53.91%55.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.691.741.751.7759.17%57.54%57.31%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Illinois Fighting Illini (Visit)

Prediction 46.24%2.16fair odd

EV -0.594%

Edge -0.276%

Kelly -0.516%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

44.01%46.10%46.09%47.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.962.032.022.1551.02%49.16%49.38%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Purdue Boilermakers (Local): 53.76%; Illinois Fighting Illini (Visit): 46.24%. For Illinois Fighting Illini (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.16. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.15, with an expected value of -0.594%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.84%E -2.73%K -6.28%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -7.53%E -3.76%K -7.53%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-04-05 00:34
1xBet🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 52.93%EV -4.84%E -2.73%K -6.28%G +0.000%	1.99I 50.25%NM 47.07%EV -7.99%E -4.02%K -8.07%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-05 11:55
FanDuel🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 53.68%EV -5.37%E -3.05%K -7.07%G +0.000%	2.04I 49.02%NM 46.32%EV -5.68%E -2.78%K -5.46%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-04-05 14:40
BetRivers🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 52.69%EV -5.37%E -3.05%K -7.07%G +0.000%	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.31%EV -9.38%E -4.78%K -9.77%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-04-05 12:55
Bally Bet🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 52.69%EV -5.37%E -3.05%K -7.07%G +0.000%	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.31%EV -9.38%E -4.78%K -9.77%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-04-05 12:54
betPARX🎯	1.76I 56.82%NM 52.69%EV -5.37%E -3.05%K -7.07%G +0.000%	1.96I 51.02%NM 47.31%EV -9.38%E -4.78%K -9.77%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-04-05 12:55
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.46%EV -5.91%E -3.38%K -7.88%G +0.000%	2.01I 49.75%NM 46.54%EV -7.07%E -3.52%K -7.00%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-05 14:45
DraftKings🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.45%E -3.71%K -8.72%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.22%E -2.54%K -4.97%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-04-05 14:35
Bovada🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.45%E -3.71%K -8.72%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.22%E -2.54%K -4.97%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-04-05 14:34
theScore Bet🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.45%E -3.71%K -8.72%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.22%E -2.54%K -4.97%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-04-05 15:59
Betway🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -8.06%E -4.72%K -11.36%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -7.53%E -3.76%K -7.53%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-04-05 14:35
BetUS🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -9.14%E -5.41%K -13.24%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -0.594%E -0.276%K -0.516%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-04-05 13:40
LowVig.ag🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.76%EV -9.14%E -5.41%K -13.24%G +0.000%	2.13I 46.95%NM 44.24%EV -1.52%E -0.713%K -1.34%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-04-05 13:39
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 55.76%EV -9.14%E -5.41%K -13.24%G +0.000%	2.13I 46.95%NM 44.24%EV -1.52%E -0.713%K -1.34%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-04-05 13:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.76I 56.82%NM 54.40%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.60%	4.4%	2026-04-05 16:20