Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Purdue Boilermakers v Illinois Fighting Illini

Kickoff: 2026-04-03 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

51%

49%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Purdue Boilermakers (Local)

Prediction 50.87%1.97fair odd

EV -4.36%

Edge -2.32%

Kelly -4.96%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

50.00%50.92%50.74%54.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.741.821.801.8857.47%54.97%55.56%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Illinois Fighting Illini (Visit)

Prediction 49.13%2.04fair odd

EV +0.715%

Edge +0.349%

Kelly +0.681%

Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

45.91%49.08%49.26%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.871.921.932.0553.48%52.13%51.81%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Purdue Boilermakers (Local): 50.87%; Illinois Fighting Illini (Visit): 49.13%. For Illinois Fighting Illini (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.04. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.715%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Bovada🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -11.49%E -6.60%K -15.52%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV +0.715%E +0.349%K +0.681%G +0.005%	6.3%	2026-04-03 17:23
DraftKings🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -8.43%E -4.68%K -10.54%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -4.20%E -2.15%K -4.42%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-04-03 17:55
1xBet🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -8.43%E -4.68%K -10.54%G +0.000%	1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -4.69%E -2.42%K -4.99%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-04-03 17:30
betPARX🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 52.15%EV -9.45%E -5.31%K -12.12%G +0.000%	1.94I 51.55%NM 47.85%EV -4.69%E -2.42%K -4.99%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-04-03 17:55
MyBookie.ag🎯	1.81I 55.25%NM 51.60%EV -7.92%E -4.38%K -9.78%G +0.000%	1.93I 51.81%NM 48.40%EV -5.18%E -2.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-04-03 17:53
BetRivers🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%EV -9.45%E -5.31%K -12.12%G +0.000%	1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -5.18%E -2.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-04-03 17:34
Bally Bet🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 52.02%EV -9.45%E -5.31%K -12.12%G +0.000%	1.93I 51.81%NM 47.98%EV -5.18%E -2.68%K -5.57%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-04-03 17:35
Betway🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -8.43%E -4.68%K -10.54%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -6.16%E -3.23%K -6.77%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-04-03 17:45
FanDuel🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -4.36%E -2.32%K -4.96%G +0.000%	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -7.64%E -4.06%K -8.68%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-04-03 17:39
BetMGM🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.87%E -2.61%K -5.60%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.13%E -4.35%K -9.34%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-04-03 15:24
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.87%E -2.61%K -5.60%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.13%E -4.35%K -9.34%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-04-03 17:30
LowVig.ag🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.87%E -2.61%K -5.60%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.13%E -4.35%K -9.34%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-04-03 17:30
BetUS🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -4.87%E -2.61%K -5.60%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -8.13%E -4.35%K -9.34%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-04-03 17:29

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Novig◎	1.89I 52.91%NM 50.52%	1.93I 51.81%NM 49.48%	4.7%	2026-04-03 17:55