Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Portland Pilots v Niagara Purple Eagles

Kickoff: 2026-02-28 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

85%

15%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Portland Pilots (Local)

Prediction 85.15%1.17fair odd

EV -5.48%

Edge -4.94%

Kelly -49.86%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

82.94%85.15%85.71%86.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.091.101.101.1191.74%91.12%91.32%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Niagara Purple Eagles (Visit)

Prediction 14.85%6.73fair odd

EV +3.95%

Edge +0.565%

Kelly +0.659%

Growth +0.026%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

13.47%14.85%14.29%17.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.306.106.057.0018.87%16.39%16.53%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Portland Pilots (Local): 85.15%; Niagara Purple Eagles (Visit): 14.85%. For Niagara Purple Eagles (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.73. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.95%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -7.19%E -6.59%K -79.86%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV +3.95%E +0.565%K +0.659%G +0.026%	6.0%	2026-02-28 18:19
FanDuel🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 85.71%EV -6.34%E -5.76%K -63.36%G +0.000%	6.60I 15.15%NM 14.29%EV -1.99%E -0.301%K -0.355%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-02-28 17:49
Betway🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 83.21%EV -5.48%E -4.94%K -49.86%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.79%EV -18.32%E -3.33%K -4.07%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-02-28 17:49
1xBet🎯	1.09I 91.74%NM 82.94%EV -7.19%E -6.59%K -79.86%G +0.000%	5.30I 18.87%NM 17.06%EV -21.29%E -4.02%K -4.95%G +0.000%	10.6%	2026-02-28 18:44

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.